Candidacy announced: Trump becomes a nightmare for Republicans

Donald Trump wants to be president of the USA again.

Candidacy announced: Trump becomes a nightmare for Republicans

Donald Trump wants to be president of the USA again. That gets his party into trouble. Because the midterm elections have shown that the ex-president is a big burden that doesn't want to go away.

The US midterm elections are not fully settled yet, but the 2024 presidential election has already begun. Donald Trump has announced that he wants to run for the Republicans in about two years. This is not good news for her.

First of all, as things stand at present, Trump has a good chance of winning the Republican primaries. They will only take place in the first half of the year after next. But Trump is currently the favorite of news site 538, which specializes in US elections - in polls he is well ahead of possible challengers such as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

Second, Trump not only lost the presidential election two years ago, but was also instrumental in the Republicans' historically poor midterm election performance. That doesn't mean Trump has no chance of winning the next presidential election. But right now he's a liability for Republicans.

Trump supports candidates who are loyal to him. While they frequently win party primaries, they are rejected by moderate Republicans and swing voters. The radical Trumpists are therefore a problem for the election prospects of the Republicans.

As a rule, the party of the incumbent president is punished in midterm elections, which even the Democrats Barack Obama and Bill Clinton and the Republican George W. Bush could not escape. But the incumbent President Joe Biden was spared a smack - even though his popularity ratings are in the basement nationwide.

Other reasons also spoke for the opposition Republicans to take control of the Senate and the House of Representatives. These include high inflation and a new composition of many constituencies that favors Republicans.

But the Democrats have defended a wafer-thin majority in the Senate. In all probability they will lose the House of Representatives to the Republicans. Surprisingly, however, they will only win a majority of a few seats there. It's up to Donald Trump.

Because the radical candidates who have committed themselves to Trump have done poorly. This is evident, for example, in Pennsylvania, a state with many swing voters. There, the Republicans should have easily defended the Senate post. But ardent Trump supporter Mehmet Oz suffered a defeat against Democrat John Fetterman, who was able to take a seat in the Senate from the Republicans. Pennsylvania's gubernatorial candidate, Doug Mastriano, also failed. The self-confessed Trump supporter spreads his electoral fraud fantasies and could have become dangerous on the post in 2024. Because the governors confirm the results of the presidential elections in their states.

Republican opponents of Trump, on the other hand, often easily prevailed against Democratic candidates, for example in the key state of Georgia. The governor there, Brian Kemp, and the state's chief election commissioner, Brad Raffensperger, were confirmed in office. Kemp had distanced himself from Trump. Raffensperger became known because after the 2020 presidential election, Trump unsuccessfully asked him to raise votes in order to manipulate the result in the state in his favor. The Trump-backed Republican candidate for the Senate seat, on the other hand, has to go into the runoff against the Democratic incumbent.

How much Trump's candidates harm the Republicans can also be seen in Ohio. Their candidates did very well there - with one exception. A Trump loyalist ran in one constituency, claiming that Trump won the presidential election two years ago and was cheated out of the win. He lost with a bang against the democratic competitor. The "New York Times" points to a pattern: In states where voters saw democracy in danger, the Democrats benefited. Where this was not the case, they suffered severe defeats, such as in New York.

The past two elections show that Trump and his loyal candidates find it difficult to win tight elections. In addition, the ex-president is good for scandals. There are several investigations against him. A House of Representatives committee is investigating his role in the storming of the Capitol. The Georgia state judiciary wants to find out whether Trump urged voters to overturn the outcome of the election. The US Department of Justice is investigating because Trump took secret documents to his Mar-a-Lago residence after his election defeat. The New York State Attorney General has sued Trump and his three eldest children. The accusation: financial fraud.

That's not attractive to voters. But that doesn't stop Trump from seeking re-election. The investigations may even be a reason for this.