Colonel Reisner at ntv.de: "The breakthrough at Balaklija should go down in history"

Markus Reisner is one of those experts who is rather cautious about Ukraine's successes and chances of success in their defensive struggle against Russia.

Colonel Reisner at ntv.de: "The breakthrough at Balaklija should go down in history"

Markus Reisner is one of those experts who is rather cautious about Ukraine's successes and chances of success in their defensive struggle against Russia. Now the colonel of the Austrian army, who has been analyzing the war since it began in February, says the Kharkiv offensive is "a really resounding success" for Ukraine. The war had thus entered a new phase. However, he does not want to talk about a turning point just yet.

ntv.de: The Ukraine has already announced counter-offensives several times, but mostly the successes were manageable. What has been happening in Donbass for a week?

Markus Reisner: I think, after the Ukrainians' successes, one can say that we are seeing a new phase of the war. For classification: The first phase was the attack by the Russians and the defensive success of the Ukrainians, especially near Kyiv, with the result that the Russians withdrew to the Donbass. The second phase was the battle for the Donbass: in July the Russians were able to capture Lysychansk, the last major city in the Luhansk region.

And now the third phase has begun?

Yes. The third phase is the transfer of the initiative to the Ukrainian side with the two operations in Kharkiv and Kherson, where the operation in Kharkiv turned out to be a really resounding success. The Russians suffered large losses of territory and retreated to the next line of defense, beyond the Oskil River east of Kharkiv.

What were the reasons for the Ukrainian success?

Both operations, in Kherson Oblast and in Kharkiv Oblast, were carefully prepared in the background by Ukraine. There have been rumors for weeks that preparations are underway - the Ukrainian side has always pointed to an upcoming offensive in the south. This has certainly led to the Russians beginning to gather forces there. Ukraine's preparations included destroying the bridges across the Dnipro with HIMARS rocket launchers, as well as attacks on Russian military bases in Crimea. However, the offensive in Cherson came to a halt under Russian artillery fire. Then, on September 6, the attack at Kharkov came as a complete surprise. There had also been rumors beforehand that Ukraine was pulling forces here, including in Russian social networks. However, Russia did not react to this, but continued to concentrate on the fight in Donbass. Allegedly, Russia wanted to push south from Izyum; they have reportedly set in motion the newly formed so-called Third Army Corps. This is a large formation of ground troops that was only formed in August for the war in Ukraine.

According to President Selenskyj, Isjum has now been recaptured.

Because Ukraine got ahead of the Russians. They did it very cleverly: They attacked at Balaklija, at the weakest point of the positions there - Russia had only subordinate troops deployed there. And then something happened that has always happened in history, but which is always difficult to predict: Panic broke out on the Russian side. The Russians tried to bring in reserves, but the Ukrainian advance was too fast.

What role did arms deliveries to Ukraine play in the offensives?

A big. On the one hand, there are the HIMARS systems that we saw in the south, and in the north there are also AGM-88 HARM missiles, with which the Ukrainians were able to target and destroy Russian radar systems. Especially in the north, Ukraine has deployed a whole range of weapon systems that allow them to be highly mobile. Not only did we see the combination of main battle tanks, armored personnel carriers and mobile artillery, but also many small, highly mobile units that could advance very quickly. Above all, they quickly advanced into the towns and hoisted the Ukrainian flag there. These images increased the panic among the Russians.

The Russian army seems to have left tanks and ammunition behind. Do you see signs of a hasty escape?

The pictures on the social networks do indeed look very much like it. There are several historical examples here to refer to. One is the Allied forces' breakthrough in Normandy in 1944 - Operation COBRA, which resulted in the German Wehrmacht being trapped in France in the Falaise pocket. At that time, the Germans tried to rush out of the pocket, but had to leave behind a large number of devices. The Russians, too, were apparently afraid of being surrounded by the Ukrainians, so they left their heavy equipment behind and retreated to the east with light vehicles as quickly as possible.

You spoke of a resounding success. Is this a turning point?

No, I wouldn't go that far. We have seen the beginning of a new phase tactically and operationally on the battlefield, and the breakthrough at Balaklija will probably go down in history. But the Russian attacks on substations and other power supply facilities have shown what can still be in store for Ukraine. And we shouldn't forget that the war is also being waged on a strategic level, which must not be lost in the current euphoria. Russia is deliberately trying to hit Ukraine's Achilles' heel with the economic war: Without the support of the West, Ukraine cannot continue the war. It's not just about the delivery of weapons, but also of other goods, especially with regard to the winter.

How will Russia stop the West from supporting Ukraine?

By stoking fear: Russia suggests that by cutting off grain exports there could be famine, or by reducing energy exports there could be an economic collapse in the West. A third element is stoking fears of a nuclear escalation. It will therefore be decisive how the next few weeks and months will develop. Ukraine has to get 35 million people through the winter.

Does Ukraine now need different weapons from the West than before?

With the attacks on the infrastructure, we see that Ukraine is still suffering from the fact that it does not have a sustainably functioning air defense system. True, it has ground-based close-range anti-aircraft defenses that have also helped with the offensive now - especially shoulder-launched manpads. But it also needs anti-ballistic and cruise missile defense systems. President Zelenskyy said a few weeks ago that Russia had already fired 3,700 cruise missiles and rockets. In its daily summary of successes, however, Ukraine only names a small number of such systems that have been shot down - many are obviously not shot down. A functioning anti-aircraft defense would make it possible to protect the hinterland. This is important in order to be able to ensure that supply depots, fuel depots and infrastructure are protected against Russian attacks in the long term.

Does the Ukrainian army risk being encircled itself or overburdening its logistics during its advances, i.e. being left without supplies?

This is a challenge whose outcome is difficult to predict. The Ukrainian armed forces must now secure this success in the long term. You need functioning supply lines and enough forces to secure the areas. At the moment it seems that Ukraine can do this well by using many mobile units. There is also currently no indication that the Russian side can provide large-scale forces for a counterattack.

The Ukrainian army says it has retaken more than 3,000 square kilometers since early September. Is that plausible?

This is entirely plausible because it corresponds to statements in Russian social networks - you always have to look at both sides. Not only was there a push toward Kupyansk and turning south toward Izyum, but the whole area northwest of Kupyansk to the Russian border is under the control of Ukrainian forces.

Moscow spoke on Saturday of a "realignment" of its troops. Is this rhetoric to cover up a backlash?

At the moment it is irrelevant what Moscow says, because Ukraine's success prevails. The war is also being waged in the information space - here is the message coming from Ukraine: We can be successful if we get the right weapon systems.

What's next?

We'll know more in the spring. I have given two historical examples, another would be the summer offensive of the Soviet troops in 1944, Operation Bagration, which led to a complete collapse of the German Wehrmacht on the Eastern Front. But perhaps the historical parallel is the German Ardennes offensive at the end of 1944: an initial military success that nevertheless cannot avert defeat. It is also possible that if the Russian leadership does not manage to show successes again, we will see events like the October Revolution of 1917, even if there is currently nothing to suggest it. But this war has surprised us several times, and it will be no different in the future.

Hubertus Volmer spoke to Markus Reisner