Although few people doubt that Congress will extend the government's borrowing power when it expires December 31, no one is certain how they'll do this . Democrats still don't possess the votes to pass President Joe Biden’s top priorities into law. Republicans are also concerned that Democrats might weaken the filibuster rule, which allows the Senate's minor party to derail legislation.
If you make a mistake, there may be a catastrophic federal default, a collapse in Biden's domestic agenda, and, perhaps most importantly, a government shutdown. If leaders don't be careful, it can lead to confrontations between lawmakers who are already on edge and looking for ways to prepare for the next year's midterm elections.
These are the risks each side takes:
DEBT LIMIT
Senator Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) blinks last week. He then said that he would not blink again.
McConnell stated that Republicans have not provided the votes needed by the majority of Democrats to extend the federal debt ceiling since summer. McConnell had stated since summer that Republicans wouldn't supply the votes majority Democrats needed to extend the federal debt limit. But, McConnell and 11 other Republicans joined Democrats Thursday night in narrowly defeating a procedural hurdle so that the Senate could then approve $480 billion of fresh borrowing.
House passage is expected Tuesday. This would prevent until December a federal default that could disrupt global economic conditions, delay checks to Social Security recipients, and unleash the wrath of voters on lawmakers.
However, the partisan dispute is expected to resume within two months.
Republicans want Democrats raising the debt ceiling by themselves to support their argument that Biden’s multitrillion-dollar environment and social agenda is too expensive. Democrats want Republicans to place their stamp on the borrowing limit hike. They point out that $28 trillion of the national debt is due to unpaid bills, which includes $7 trillion under former President Donald Trump.
McConnell allowed a two-month reprieve from the fight which angered Republicans who desired a tougher stance on Democrats, including Trump, still a formidable force in the GOP. McConnell's usual ally Senator Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) called it "complete surrender".
Eight of the eleven Republicans who helped Democrats approve the debt limit hike Thursday are retiring or not seeking to be reelected until 2024, demonstrating the political sensitivities at play.
Friday night McConnell stated that he would not offer such assistance again, citing "grave concern" about the Democrats' massive domestic bill and "hysterics," by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.). More details will follow.
Something has to give by December. It's not clear how this will happen and leaders will need to be vigilant in order to keep partisans at bay.
Oh, by Dec. 3, federal agencies are going to close unless Congress approves legislation funding them.
BIDEN'S AGENDA
Democratic progressives and centrists are fighting for the final contents and size of Biden’s 10-year, $3.5 Trillion package of social safety nets, climate change, and tax initiatives. As their fights drag on, the party runs the risk of letting the struggle itself define the effort and distracting from the popular programs it wants to include.
Biden, thanks to Senate moderates such as Joe Manchin from West Virginia and Kyrsten Silema of Arizona has admitted that the final price tag for the bill will likely be lower at around $2 trillion. Accordingly, money for priorities such as education, health care, and the environment will need to shrink.
Democrats face a unanimous Republican opposition and thin congressional majorities. To succeed, Democrats will need to be near unanimity. If Biden's top priority bill and the $1 trillion infrastructure package that accompanied it, fall apart with his party still holding Congress and the White House, the political consequences would be severe for Democrats.
Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. Senate Budget Committee Chairman, stated Friday, "I hope that God that is not so." He had predicted that both bills would be passed, but conceded there was a "horrible possibility" of them failing.
FILIBUSTER FEARS
Democrats are becoming more open to the idea that filibusters could be weakened. Senate procedures have allowed Republicans to wreak havoc legislatively by requiring 60 votes from the 50-50 chamber in order to pass most bills. Sinema and Manchin have stated that they are against this change.
GOP leaders are concerned that Schumer may be able convince Manchin and Sinema, if the debt limit standoff reaches the brink of default, to repeal filibusters that were against debt limit increases. This could lead to additional voting rights and other Democratic priorities, as well as later exceptions.
These fears are the "most obvious challenge" for Republicans in calculating how stubborn they should be in the debt limit standoff. Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said that.
SOUR MOOD
Congress is a tense place right now. The four-year-old Trump presidency has been a bellicose disaster. His supporters attacked the Capitol Jan. 6, causing a deadly explosion. Democrats are pushing Biden's programs with high stakes.
There are many broken relationships.
Manchin stated Wednesday that he did not want the Democrats' massive domestic programs bill, which Sanders is a major author, to create an entitlement society in the U.S.
Sanders criticised Manchin's efforts to reduce climate change and the health care provisions contained in the bill. Sanders asked, "Does Senator Manchin believe that our children are entitled to live and work in a healthy country?"
They represent two opposite ends of the Democratic political spectrum. It was still a rare public airing of internal disagreements at a critical moment.
McConnell sent a letter to Biden in which he unleashed a bitter personal attack against Schumer. McConnell claimed that Schumer's "childish behaviour" alienated Republicans who had just passed the short-term debt limit extension. He added, "It has poisoned it even further."
"There is a lot at stake here in terms causes that many of our fought for, for decades," stated No. Richard Durbin, Illinois' 2 Senate Democratic Leader. He said, "So the earlier we get it done, the better."
