London sees Ukraine's progress in the Kherson region. The city of Nowa Kachowka, which is important for Russian supplies, is heavily contested. Putin's army could, however, abandon them in order to be stronger in other parts of the region. But that conflicts with the Kremlin's hard line.
According to British intelligence services, Russia faces a strategic dilemma in defending fiercely contested areas on the Dnipro River in Ukraine. One of the biggest challenges for Russian commanders is the growing threat to the strategically important city of Nowa Kakhovka at the southern end of the Dnipro Dam, according to the British Defense Ministry's daily briefing.
The Russians needed the damaged supply route across the Dnipro in this region to supply their own troops across the river. A withdrawal of the units from there would strengthen the defense of the region around the regional capital of Cherson, but the political imperative will probably dictate not to withdraw, according to the British.
Moscow has already deployed the majority of its undermanned air force to defend Kherson. As a result, the Kremlin hardly has any other highly qualified and rapidly deployable troops that could stabilize the front. It is likely that reservists will be used in the future, it said.
The Ukrainian forces launched a new offensive in Kherson Oblast on October 2, it said. During advances to the south, the units managed to shift the front line by 20 kilometers, especially on the east bank of the Inhulets River and on the west bank of the Dnipro. Russian forces have withdrawn, but larger defensive posts have not yet fallen.
The British Ministry of Defense has published daily information on the course of the war since the beginning of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine at the end of February, citing intelligence information. In doing so, the British government wants to both counter the Russian portrayal and keep allies in line. Moscow accuses London of a targeted disinformation campaign.
