With a surprise tactic and fast formations, Kyiv managed to break through in Kharkiv. Ukrainian units are already targeting other regions. Observers believe a third offensive is possible. Kyiv is already assembling troops in the Donetsk region -- and is probably clearing minefields.
With a military move, highly mobile Ukrainian units have turned the dynamic of the Russian war against their country for the time being. The highest-ranking German soldier, Inspector General Eberhard Zorn, attests the Ukrainian forces a "mixture of deception and focus". They are now "really in an outstanding position" to act agilely, to use command systems and to use their systems in a "combined arms battle" in a coordinated manner, he made clear in Berlin at an appearance at the German Society for Foreign Relations. "In this case, the deception was in the south, the focus was in the north," says Zorn, referring to the strategy the Ukrainians used to route Russian units in the north-east.
The Ukrainian troops are already eyeing other areas after they liberated an area in the Kharkiv region about twice the size of Saarland. The military governor of the completely occupied neighboring Luhansk region, Serhiy Hajday, considers an advance to Svatovo and Kreminna and then the complete liberation of the eastern province to be possible. To do this, however, the Ukrainian units would first have to overcome the Russian defense line along the Oskil and Siwerskyi Donets rivers. There are first signs that this plan is already being pursued.
Observers of Ukrainian troop concentrations near Wuhledar in the Donetsk region and on other front sectors are also fueling rumors of an imminent Ukrainian advance in a third front area. Russian military bloggers report that Ukrainian forces are clearing their own minefields near Wuhledar - possibly for an attack. Experts no longer even rule out an attack on the separatist stronghold of Donetsk. There is also speculation about a push towards Mariupol. It is about 100 kilometers from Wuhledar to the occupied port city.
At the same time, the pressure on the Russian troops in the southern Ukrainian region of Kherson is being maintained. The Russian army had to abandon several villages and the front is slowly but surely approaching the provincial capital of Kherson and the Dnipro River. Due to the lack of ammunition and low morale, some observers believe the Russians may soon evacuate the right western bank of the Dnipro.
In addition, the Ukrainian army is continuing its "thousand pinpricks" tactics: acts of sabotage on power lines, railway lines and other infrastructure objects in the Russian region near the border. In addition, high-precision rocket attacks on ammunition depots, barracks and command centers even in the deep Russian hinterland and as recently in Taganrog in the south of the country increase the uncertainty.
Moscow, on the other hand, looks battered - the British Ministry of Defense even assesses Russian units of central importance as weakened, such as the 1st Guards Tank Army, which is intended to defend the capital Moscow. Parts of this association, which is one of the most prestigious in the Russian military, withdrew from the Kharkiv region last week. After the losses, Russia will need years to rebuild these capabilities.
A complete liberation of the Ukrainian territory, including the Crimea peninsula, seemed like a fantasy until recently. However, political scientist Markus Kaim from the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik believes it is premature to declare a turning point. However, the fact that the Russian retreat resembled an escape allows conclusions to be drawn about the morale of the soldiers. "Against this background, it is not wrong to assume that one or the other defeat will follow." Russia has a superiority in "hardware", but the will to fight appears weakened among the soldiers.
