Get out of crisis mode?: How the traffic light can be successful in 2023

The traffic light has been in permanent state of emergency for a year.

Get out of crisis mode?: How the traffic light can be successful in 2023

The traffic light has been in permanent state of emergency for a year. Although she forges compromises in crisis mode, the cultural differences among her electorate complicate her politics. However, the situation is not hopeless.

The traffic light coalition of SPD, Greens and FDP has been in office for more than a year at the turn of the year. The euphoria in the "progress coalition" was great at first, but then came the much-cited turning point with Russia's war against Ukraine. The hope that the coalition would address a large number of segments that are keen on modernization and thus implement innovative projects in the socio-political area, but could also forge broad compromises, was burdened with a heavy burden. Instead, the focus is on issues such as securing the energy supply and distribution policy issues relating to the social cushioning of rising prices, issues on which the cross-camp coalition has difficulty finding a common denominator. The traffic light reigns in a kind of permanent state of emergency.

Polls show the government is under pressure a year after taking office. The public's trust in politicians' ability to find solutions is falling, and people's satisfaction with the functioning of democracy in Germany is at an all-time low. Surveys of focus groups also show that the immune system of the middle of society is weakened against anti-democratic slogans and conspiracy narratives from the right-wing fringe. Many citizens currently feel left alone with their financial worries and are therefore not satisfied with the performance of the federal government. The Union is again close to 30 percent in the polls, but at the same time the majority does not believe that it would do any better in government - further evidence of eroding trust in the political elite.

While the FDP, a coalition partner, is just above the five percent hurdle in polls and has to contend with a particularly dissatisfied clientele, it is evident that there are also major differences in the political attitudes of the voters of the traffic light parties. The progressive coalition wanted to modernize society, but current debates about simplified naturalizations or corona rules are showing a larger cultural gap between the voters of the SPD, Greens and FDP.

One year after the formation of the coalition, the approach of making a joint offer to the most diverse segments of society with an affinity for modernization is under doubly pressure: the debates about the right way to ensure socially just support against the economic effects of the war shows that here As expected, strong differences with regard to basic economic issues. The attempts to turn Germany into a modern immigration country bring to light the different cultural attitudes of the coalition partners.

However, the situation is not hopeless. Because the coalition agreement provides solutions in key policy areas, while compromises have so far been able to be reached on the new relief issues that have arisen. In addition, both the traffic light parties and their voters have more in common than they divide, even after the "turn of the era". The problem of climate change is recognized as an urgent problem by a clear majority in all segments of the traffic light. Likewise, we must also take measures for this. Here, however, it is important that the traffic light parties do not allow themselves to be driven by a loud but small minority on the right-wing fringe, because those who adopt their narratives generally lose more than they gain. For the FDP in particular, there is also an opportunity in the area of ​​a progressive climate policy and a liberal naturalization and immigration policy, because the Merz-CDU is increasingly turning away from Merkel's middle course, which is also expressed in other policy areas. Modern, urban, bourgeois segments remain politically homeless and can be addressed by a modern FDP.

In the second year, the traffic light will be about resolving ambivalences and combining them into a common program of action. It is also clear that people in Germany are tired of the crisis and need a positive vision of the future that is credible and also differs from previous attempts in terms of language. Surveys show that the term "future" no longer has a positive connotation in the population, but rather causes concern. What is needed is a renewal of the common history of the coalition agreement, a future-oriented narrative of progress under the new social realities that clearly shows ways out of the current crises. This update for the common catalog of values ​​of the traffic light coalition is a central basis for policy-making for the government's upcoming responses to the challenging situation in Germany and the world.

There are plenty of starting points for the three parties, both individually and collectively: the climate-neutral transformation of the economy, digitization and social modernization as well as shaping the working world of tomorrow. These topics can be linked to form a positive draft of the future, a Germany of opportunities. Such a process can lead to the fact that tensions are reduced and at the same time enough space can be created for the respective positioning of the partners.

Rainer Faus is managing partner of pollytix strategic research gmbh. Fedor Ruhose (SPD) is State Secretary in the Ministry of Labour, Social Affairs, Transformation and Digitization of the State of Rhineland-Palatinate and Policy Fellow of the think tank "Das Progressive Zentrum".