Security expert Major doesn't think Russia is capable of launching major operations in Ukraine. However, with the current aid, Kyiv is not in a position to end the war in the coming year. That's why it will probably last a long time.
According to a security expert from the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), Russia's war in Ukraine will not end next year either. "The war will last a long time," Claudia Major, head of the SWP research group on security policy, told the editorial network Germany. "I don't expect the war to end next year if our military support stays the same as before."
Ukraine needs more weapons to decisively push Russia back: "To fight Russian communications, logistics, leadership, they need drones, artillery and rocket artillery with longer ranges," Major told RND. "In order to liberate more areas, they need main battle tanks and armored personnel carriers."
The expert does not currently believe that Moscow is capable of carrying out further large-scale attacks: "At the moment I don't see Russia having the necessary military capabilities to march to Moldova," she said. "Militarily, Russia is currently not in a position to carry out a land assault on Kyiv."
"Nevertheless, Russia could inflict heavy casualties on Ukraine and slow it down, if only by sending poorly trained recruits to the front lines and further destroying civilian infrastructure," Major continued.
The expert, on the other hand, sees little chance for peace negotiations. Anyone who believes that Ukraine has a choice between war on the one hand and negotiations and peace on the other is completely misunderstanding the situation, she said: "Ukraine only has the choice between war and annihilation: war, i.e. to liberate the Russian-occupied territories, or under Russian rule occupation - as in Irpin or Izjum - to be destroyed."
In Germany, SPD faction leader Rolf Mützenich recently promoted a debate about possible peace talks in Russia. At Christmas he criticized in the "taz" that diplomacy in Germany was "reflexively rejected". However, diplomacy does not mean "negotiating with Putin unconditionally or even over the heads of Ukraine."