Mission to end in May 2024: What does the Bundeswehr withdrawal mean for Mali?

France and Great Britain have already declared their military operations in Mali over.

Mission to end in May 2024: What does the Bundeswehr withdrawal mean for Mali?

France and Great Britain have already declared their military operations in Mali over. The federal government also wants to withdraw the last German armed forces by May 2024. What is behind the decision and what will happen next for Mali and the local missions?

Why is the Bundeswehr withdrawing?

The federal government is drawing the conclusions from a months-long dispute with the military rulers of Mali over the overflight rights of the Bundeswehr. Most recently, Mali's government had also made a planned entry of the German Inspector General Eberhard Zorn - Germany's highest-ranking soldier - practically impossible by tightening visa regulations. The country of 20 million people has experienced three military coups since 2012 - two alone followed each other in 2020 and 2021. According to the interim government, there will be presidential elections in February 2024.

What does that mean for the UN mission Minusma?

With 1,200 soldiers, Germany is the largest European provider of troops for the United Nations mission (Minusma). "The Bundeswehr is leaving, but other countries, especially African countries, are staying with the Minusma. The fact is, however, that with the departure of Germany, very well-trained soldiers with the most modern equipment are leaving Mali," says Christian Klatt, head of the SPD-affiliated Friedrich- Ebert Foundation (FES) in Bamako. It must be clarified how the Minusma or another mission could continue. Before Germany, France, Great Britain and Denmark had already announced the withdrawal of their own troops, partly citing the presence of Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group as a reason. The Malian government has not confirmed their presence.

What are the military rulers doing now?

The Malian politician Fousseyni Ouattara, member of the defense commission of the transitional parliament, criticized the German press agency that the Minusma did not help the Malian soldiers either in combat or with information in reconnaissance. "Mali can continue to work with those partners who seek to accommodate the Malian government's expressed needs," Ouattara said. According to the Malian political scientist Mady Kamara, the new partners include Russia, China, Turkey and Iran.

The extent to which an African Union mission or cooperation with other Sahel countries could emerge remains open. Mali did not take part in the recent meeting of the permanent regional security conference "Accra Initiative". In addition to Burkina Faso and Niger, coastal states such as Ghana, Togo, Benin and Ivory Coast are also increasingly affected by terrorism.

Will Mali fare like Afghanistan?

After the failure of the western engagement in Afghanistan in the summer of last year, the Bundeswehr's only major foreign mission is in Mali. But, according to the political scientist Kamara from Bamako, the violent terrorist and criminal actors in Mali cannot be compared with those in Afghanistan. However, with the withdrawal of the Bundeswehr: "The terrorists will be able to move more freely, even beyond Mali." It is crucial to use the 1.5-year time window for the announced deduction, says FES office manager Klatt. Germany must consider what is possible beyond military support, for example with foundation work, development aid and political support.

What does that mean for the humanitarian situation in one of the poorest countries in the world?

Extreme poverty, a lack of education and prospects as well as gender inequality put Mali third from bottom out of 189 countries in the UN Human Development Index. The main driver behind this: the continuing violence, especially in the north and center of Mali. According to analyzes by the non-governmental organization ACLED, 2022 is likely to be the year with the highest number of deaths since the conflict began. "The civilian population is kidnapped, raped and killed, sometimes by Malian soldiers, by jihadists, by suspected Wagner mercenaries or by local militias," says lawyer Drissa Traoré from the human rights organization FDHI, describing testimonies from those affected in central Mali.

What does all this mean for migration to Europe?

"Departing for Europe takes a lot of money, but the people in the Sahel region don't have that," says Kamara. Rather, most migrated within Mali or the Sahel region. Since the beginning of the crisis in Mali in 2012, comparatively few people from the Sahel state have applied for asylum in Germany. According to the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees, in 2016, the year with a record number of asylum applications (745,545), only 1,283 applications came from Malian citizens. France is still the most popular EU destination country.