Nationalist criticizes Kremlin: Girkin: Offensive will not lead to Kiev's defeat

Russian nationalist Igor Girkin is one of the most well-known critics of Moscow's military leadership.

Nationalist criticizes Kremlin: Girkin: Offensive will not lead to Kiev's defeat

Russian nationalist Igor Girkin is one of the most well-known critics of Moscow's military leadership. On his Telegram channel, the former secret service officer is now evaluating three possible scenarios for a major offensive in Ukraine. The military blogger does not come to a positive conclusion for Russia.

Moscow's conduct of the war has repeatedly caused dissatisfaction in Russia's nationalist circles. One of the most prominent critics is Igor Girkin. The 52-year-old military blogger was for a time "Defense Minister" of the self-proclaimed "Donetsk People's Republic" and commanded Russian fighters after the illegal annexation of Crimea. He is also charged with shooting down the Malaysia Airlines flight over Ukraine in July 2014.

Girkin has now commented in detail on Telegram about three possible attack scenarios by the Russian armed forces in Ukraine. He is pessimistic about the situation of Moscow's armed forces.

Girkin considers the probability of an offensive from Belarus to be low, since the Ukrainians in the border region are prepared for an attack and the heavily rugged forest and swamp area is difficult to cross. According to his calculations, at least 150,000 to 200,000 soldiers would be needed to create a continuous front in the north. In addition, such a major attack would probably lead to Belarus being drawn into the war, the former officer of the GRU military intelligence service fears. "From the point of view of common sense, a renewed push into the Kiev, Chernihiv and (possibly) Volhynia regions would mean extending the front by another thousand kilometers with no hope of decisive success," Girkin concluded.

He thinks an advance from the Russian border regions of Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk is more likely, since Moscow has already concentrated troops in these areas to protect Russia. Girkin emphasizes that Kharkiv is the second most important city in Ukraine and an important industrial center. However, it is questionable whether the Kremlin associations could achieve significant successes in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions. "But I firmly believe that a big battle here will definitely result in big losses," Girkin said. However, a refreshment of the troops would be impossible without new mobilizations in Russia.

As a third option, Girkin identifies the Zaporizhia region to the south. He identified the cities of Orikhiv and Hulyaypole as the priority targets of an offensive in the area, without which an advance on the regional capital of Zaporizhia would be impossible. Girkin describes the flat and open terrain as an "advantage", which can only be successfully defended by troop concentrations in large settlements. The disadvantage, however, is that the Ukrainian armed forces have continued to fortify their positions in recent months. "Breaking through the front line again quickly requires a lot of forces, concentrated in well-trained and reliably controlled units and formations," says Girkin.

Finally, Girkin tells his almost 800,000 followers that he currently sees no factors that would guarantee the success of a major Russian offensive. A full-scale offensive struggle would "very quickly and inevitably lead to great casualties and the depletion of resources". Despite possible successes, these would not lead to a complete defeat of Ukraine. Mainly because the Russian armed forces lack strategic reserves.

"Regardless of whether our military leaders decide to launch an offensive or wait for Ukraine's spring offensive to hold the front line, mobilization of both the population and the entire industry will be required." According to Girkin, the longer Moscow hesitates, the smaller the chances of Ukraine's military defeat.