The Russian advance in the Donbass is progressing. According to Ukrainian data, the defenders of the city of Sieverodonetsk are withdrawing almost without a fight. US experts consider the decision to be correct and see strategic calculation behind it.
After weeks of trench warfare in the Donbass, the Russian armed forces have gained ground again in the past few days. Since the front broke through at Popasna in the Luhansk region, Moscow's forces have been pushing north and west to encircle the twin cities of Sievarodonetsk and Lysychansk.
But the frontal attack on Sievjerodonetsk from the north was also having an effect. According to Ukrainian information, a large part of the city is already in Russian hands. Regional governor Serhij Gajdaj expects full capture in the next two to three days. According to him, the Ukrainian units are withdrawing to Lysychansk.
The US military research institute ISW sees calculations behind Sievjerodonetsk's surrender almost without a fight. Experts are certain that Kiev's military planners could have allocated more reserves and resources to defend the city. Nevertheless, the withdrawal decision is strategically sensible.
"Ukraine must use its limited resources sparingly and concentrate on regaining critical terrain instead of defending ground whose control will not decide the outcome of the war," says the current ISW situation report. The prioritization of counterattacks and defensive operations has already led to success in the past. As an example, the analysts cite the recaptures in the Kharkiv area and the halt to the Russian advance at Izyum.
Instead, the Kremlin insisted on sending all available reserves to the Donbass, even though the cities of Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk were only of symbolic value. Both are the last major cities in the Luhansk region still controlled by Ukraine. Putin's focus on the East is currently weakening Russian positions in the Cherson region.
This area is extremely important for Ukraine. Because around the city of the same name, Moscow's units have crossed the river Dnieper. The positions on the west bank are important as a starting point for further large-scale attacks. On the other hand, if Ukraine manages to liberate the city of Kherson, they would be in a much better position against future Russian offensives, the estimates say.
"The leadership of Ukraine had to make incredibly difficult decisions in this war and generally made the right decisions," say the experts from the ISW. That is why Ukraine still has a good chance of stopping and reversing Russian territorial gains.
