Uncertainty still hangs over the outcome of the vote expected Thursday in the National Assembly on the pension reform, suspended in particular from the hesitations of a few LR deputies who could tip the result.
For the reform to be adopted, it will take a number of favorable votes greater than that of the "against" votes, without the need to reach the threshold of an absolute majority in the hemicycle.
"We can lose," admits a macronist executive at the Palais Bourbon, aware that the decision will be decided by a few votes, as confirmed by the latest AFP counts from parliamentary sources.
CONS
The 88 RN deputies, as well as the 150 deputies of Nupes (including the deputy of the North Adrien Quatennens, currently suspended from the LFI group and sitting among the non-registered), will vote against the reform.
Within the small independent group LIOT, which has 20 deputies, 16 should vote against, according to an internal source.
In the presidential camp, only Horizons deputy Yannick Favennec announced a vote against the reform.
It is on the side of the LR group, and its 61 deputies on whom the executive relies to have its text adopted, that the evaluation is the most fluctuating. Despite the concessions obtained, in particular on the long career system, they will be "between 15 and 20" to oppose the reform, estimated Wednesday evening the LR deputy for the Territory of Belfort, Ian Boucard.
Rather "20 against, and 5-6 abstentions", figure Thursday morning a leader of the group.
In addition to Mr Quatennens, three other non-attached MEPs are also expected to vote against.
The addition of votes against could therefore be between 273 and 279 votes.
FOR THE
Within the Macronist Renaissance group (170 deputies), taking into account the few reluctant deputies who should abstain like Barbara Pompili, there should be at least 165 favorable votes.
Among their allies, they should have the reinforcement of at least 26 Horizons MPs (out of 29) and 50 Modems (out of 51).
The small LIOT group could also bring at least one vote in favor, even if some were still hesitating on Wednesday evening between a favorable vote and abstention.
On the side of LR, the votes "for" should be between 35 and 40, according to the interlocutors questioned. The boss of senators LR Bruno Retailleau is counting on only "between 30 and 35 for".
The sum of votes "for" would therefore be in a range between 277 and just over 280 votes. A count that confirms that the result will be played on the wire.
03/16/2023 11:57:24 - Paris (AFP) - © 2023 AFP
