Post-fascists and populists: what if the right rules in Italy?

Italy will elect a new parliament in September.

Post-fascists and populists: what if the right rules in Italy?

Italy will elect a new parliament in September. A right-wing alliance is currently in the lead that could take over the government. This coalition could not afford a change in foreign policy. But in domestic politics - and the statements by party leader Meloni are clear.

Polls suggest the centre-right could win Italy's general elections scheduled for September 25. Or should one rather say right-centre camp, as Giovanni Orsina, political scientist and professor at the Roman University Luiss, recently put it? "It would be the most right-wing government of the post-war period," the professor said at a meeting with the foreign press.

As things stand at present, this government would be composed of Giorgia Meloni's right-wing Fratelli d'Italia party, Matteo Salvini's national-populist Lega and Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia. The latter describes itself as liberal and moderate, but would only be a flyweight in this coalition with 7 percent of the votes. The government would be led by Fratelli d'Italia, who even overtook the Lega in the mayoral elections a month ago with almost 24 percent, which is currently at just over 12 percent.

Although Berlusconi likes to stylize himself as the guarantor of a liberal centre-right course, he has followed the Lega in tow. A week ago, together with Salvini, he made the condition of Prime Minister Mario Draghi: either there is a new governing coalition without a 5-star movement or one will not take part in the vote of confidence. As is well known, Draghi refused to be blackmailed and resigned.

Foreign media are already warning of a dangerous shift to the right in Italy, which in fact cannot be ruled out. When asked by ntv.de how real the danger of a neo-fascist turn proclaimed by the "New York Times" was, political scientist Orsina replied: "One should not confuse the terms post-fascist and neo-fascist." The term post-fascist is historically correct because the origins of the Fratelli d'Italia are rooted in the Movimento Sociale, the post-war post-fascist party. "However, neo-fascist means that one ties directly to fascism."

It is true that Meloni never clearly and strictly distanced himself from fascism, but always maneuvered around. However, according to Orsina, it is wrong that the Fratelli serve neo-fascist ideas. "Of course there is also a hard base in the party that is very much pursuing nostalgic goals, but it is quite small. The new voters in particular have nothing to do with it."

But assuming the center-right wins the elections and appoints Meloni as prime minister, what would that mean for Italy's foreign policy? Although she is committed to NATO and has supported Draghi's arms deliveries to Ukraine, she has also maintained contact with former adviser to US President Donald Trump, the right-wing populist Steve Bannon. Like Salvini, who also has ties to Russian President Vladimir Puntin, Meloni is also one of the close foreign contacts of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and French Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right Rassemblement National party.

"I don't think foreign policy will change course with a center-right government," Orsina said. "Although Meloni has always taken positions that are critical of the EU and the euro, Italy's exit from the monetary union and confrontations that are too severe are unlikely to occur." Italy's economic situation is critical, the country needs every cent of the EU aid. "No politician can afford to offend Brussels." However, the political scientist does not rule out that relations with Berlin and France could become rougher.

So if it's not foreign policy where a possible right-centre government could set accents, then it would certainly be in domestic policy. Salvini is already promising the moon: a flat tax and a pension after 41 years of contributions - which would create even more trouble for Italy's budget.

Meloni, on the other hand, not only railed against the EU bureaucracy at a recent election rally of the far-right Vox party in Spain and called for a constitutional reform in which national law should take precedence over EU law. She also promulgated something of a manifesto. "Yes to the natural family, no to the LGTBQ lobby!" she said. "Yes to life, no to fatal surgery!" she alluded to abortions. "Yes to the cross, no to the Islamists!" she continued: "Yes to secure borders, no to mass immigration! Yes to decent work, no to powerful global finance! Yes to our civilization, no to those who want to destroy it !"

A few days ago, Meloni apologized for the radical statements about the LGTBQ community. However, the concerns of all those who were dismayed by the abolition of abortion rights in the USA have not diminished as a result.