Rumors about Putin's health persist. Parkinson's, cancer or psychosis - there is no evidence, but the former head of the British secret service believes that the alleged illness will lead to a change of power. From the British point of view, however, that would not end the war.
The former head of British foreign intelligence, Sir Richard Dearlove, expects a change of power in Russia by 2023 at the latest. "We are reaching the end of this regime in Russia," said the former MI6 chief on the One Decision podcast. Putin will be replaced without violence in the next few months: "I think he will be gone by 2023 - probably in the sanatorium, from which he will not emerge as the leader of Russia." Dearlove believes this is the most likely scenario to "move things forward without a coup".
Doubts about the state of health of the Russian President persist. According to reports, Putin underwent an urgent operation last week. According to the Telegram channel SVR General, Putin survived the surgery for thyroid cancer well. However, the intervention cannot be proven. The day before the operation, the 69-year-old met Tajikistan's ruler Emomalij Rahmon on May 16. Apparently uncontrollable movements of his left foot were striking.
The images fueled the assumption that he was suffering from Parkinson's disease. There were rumors about this weeks ago, when Putin tried to cover up uncontrolled hand twitches at a meeting with Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko. These are not direct indications of Parkinson's disease, as neurologists told Deutsche Welle. Putin is also often accused of having a psychosis, but there is no evidence here either.
But Dearlove believes that the tale alone can be dangerous for Putin. According to Dearlove, during Putin's stay in the mental hospital, a candidate will come forward to replace the Russian ruler: Nikolai Patrushev. According to reports, the secretary of the Russian Security Council already controls all access to Putin. He is considered a close confidante of the Russian President and is said to have been chosen by him as his deputy in the event that he was temporarily prevented from exercising his office. The deputy in that scenario is likely to become permanent, Dearlove said. "There is no succession plan in the Russian leadership," he added.
According to Dearlove, that won't end the war right away. The dictatorship will only break up in the course of the next year, maybe in 18 months. However, the effects of the war along with Putin's health would lead to internal changes, Dearlove stressed. "There is no question that this venture in Ukraine is a disaster. The economy is devastated, the sanctions will really start to take hold in the next three to six months, there will be very high inflation and on top of that it's military a complete fiasco."
