The British secret service concedes: It could well be that the Russian troops make "local territorial gains" in Donetsk. However, an operationally significant breakthrough is unlikely. However, an imminent Russian offensive seems increasingly likely.
British military experts currently consider a significant breakthrough by Russian troops in Ukraine to be unlikely, but do not rule out local territorial gains. This emerges from the daily intelligence update from the Ministry of Defense in London.
As the ministry writes on Twitter, the Russians have expanded their attacks on the cities of Pavliwka and Wuhledar into a more concerted attack over the past three days. In doing so, they were presumably aimed at advancing into the Ukrainian-held part of Donetsk Oblast so that Ukrainian forces could no longer concentrate on defending the hotly contested Bakhmut.
"There is a realistic possibility that Russia will continue to make local territorial gains in the area," the British said. At the same time, they consider the attacks as a whole to have little prospect of success: "However, it is unlikely that Russia has enough untied troops in this area to achieve an operationally significant breakthrough."
ISW: Offensive in the coming months
The Institute for the Studies of War (ISW) assumes that Russia is preparing for an offensive in the coming months. This is the "most likely course of action," it says. The think tank relies on Western, Ukrainian and Russian sources.
According to the head of the Council of Reserves of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, Ivan Tymochko, Russia is therefore strengthening its armed forces in the Donbass region. With an offensive, Russia wants to score points with a victory in Ukraine after serious failures on the battlefield in their own country. NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg said on Monday that there were no signs that Russia was preparing for peace talks. All indicators pointed to the contrary.
