When? With or without Elisabeth Borne? What use? What about the Élysée? The hypothesis of a reshuffle has been relaunched since the reframing of the Prime Minister on Tuesday by Emmanuel Macron in the middle of the Council of Ministers, not without asking several questions.
- What schedule?
"The question is not if but when the government will move," says a majority official.
Emmanuel Macron has given Elisabeth Borne 100 days to relaunch the government machine, which has been shaken by the pension crisis, with July 14 as the ultimatum.
He could therefore, around this date of military review, also review his troops in government.
Unless the reshuffle comes sooner, according to other sources. As after June 8, day of examination of the proposal to repeal the pension reform which could be followed by a motion of censure.
But if the president lets the summer pass, the senatorial elections will be due on September 24. "If Emmanuel Macron wants to go to the right, not sure he can do it before," notes an LR deputy.
- Which host in Matignon?
Can Elisabeth Borne remain head of government? The question had already arisen after his appeal to 49.3 on pensions and a motion of censure rejected by only 9 votes.
Two camps are opposed within the majority.
Some want it to be maintained, skeptical or even opposed to a coalition with the right. "There is no martingale, no Prime Minister who guarantees LR votes without losing any in the majority", explains a Renaissance MP.
"We did not campaign for the program of (Valérie) Pécresse", adds a minister.
Elisabeth "Borne remains a very solid, very loyal person, and I don't see who else", notes a parliamentarian who has the ear of Emmanuel Macron.
A second camp would like to change Prime Minister to promote a more right-wing policy. "We have no choice, we have to go and make a government agreement with the LRs", pleads a Renaissance parliamentarian.
Several names circulate for Matignon: on the right, those of numbers two (Bruno Le Maire) and three (Gérald Darmanin) of the government, or even Sébastien Lecornu (Defense). But "the idea of a return to a kind of UMP government is unbearable for (François) Bayrou", the president's MoDem ally, underlines a minister.
In the historical macronie, the names of the former President of the Assembly, Richard Ferrand, or the former Minister of Agriculture, Julien Denormandie, rather return.
- What ministers?
Apart from the head of government, many are pleading to replace ministers deemed "invisible", like the club of the same name founded by François Braun (Health), with his colleagues from Education Pap Ndiaye and Ecological Transition Christophe Béchu , tired of being seen as transparent.
The government is "too techno. Apart from a few who play politics, no one knows the ministers, not even the parliamentarians", judges an elected Renaissance official.
“Too many public policies are failing because those who carry them are inaudible”, according to another.
But "every day that brings us closer to the end of the five-year term will be less about new reforms, and more and more about valuing what we have done. The cast must adapt to that", pleads a Renaissance deputy.
- To do what ?
A reshuffle “does not offer a gain in popularity for the President of the Republic, but it makes it possible to reaffirm a clear course with people who do the job”, advances a Macronist deputy.
With the 100 days, "we at least took control of the agenda," she adds. And on July 14 "there will be the demonstration that parliamentary action is not sclerotic".
It remains to be seen whether this reshuffle will allow the government, deprived of an absolute majority in the Assembly, to have more texts adopted, starting with that on immigration.
For the moment, "there is a kind of general atmosphere where we know that there is going to be a reshuffle, we are waiting too much, in weightlessness. Suddenly we are not moving forward", summarizes a parliamentarian from the majority.
In the end "there is only one who knows", Emmanuel Macron, recalls a minister.
- And at the Élysée?
If a "distance" has settled between Emmanuel Macron and his Prime Minister, some dysfunctions have also emerged between the Head of State and his "double", the all-powerful Secretary General of the Élysée Palace Alexis Kohler, put in examination also for its links with the shipowner MSC.
But will the president be "at some point able to tell Alexis you're leaving? Not sure," said a Renaissance MP.
"Kohler is convinced that there is a program", the one presented by Mr. Macron for his re-election. But "it's very fragmented, it's not a vision of society", criticizes an adviser to the executive.
02/06/2023 16:18:55 - Paris (AFP) - © 2023 AFP
