The Berlin CDU is breaking away in the race for the Red City Hall in Berlin - and is probably only strengthening its opposition role. In the most recent poll for the Berlin House of Representatives, the incumbent Senate can hope for another term.
Ten days before the repeat election in Berlin, the CDU is expanding its leading position in a survey. According to this, the party and its top candidate Kai Wegner would currently have 25 percent, as can be seen from the latest ARD Germany trend. The SPD around the current governing mayor Franziska Giffey would receive 19 percent of the votes. The Social Democrats overtake the co-governing Greens, who would come to 18 percent, in the survey months later. The left, as the third party in the red-green-red Senate, received 12 percent.
Compared to the previous survey, the CDU gained two points. The SPD wins a point and the Greens lose three points comparatively sharply. The AfD loses one point to ten percent, the FDP is unchanged at 6 percent.
The alliance of the SPD, the Greens and the Left can thus raise hopes of remaining in the state government. Giffey went into the election campaign without a concrete alliance commitment. But the Greens have ruled out participation in a CDU-led coalition. Mathematically, other alliances are conceivable - such as a Germany coalition of CDU, SPD and FDP or a Kenya coalition, but it is almost impossible that the SPD would forego the opportunity to lead the Senate.
If the governing mayor were elected directly, 32 percent of those surveyed would choose Giffey and 26 percent would choose Wegner. The Greens' top candidate, Bettina Jarasch, received 16 percent approval. She is currently the Environment and Transportation Senator.
In the House of Representatives elections on September 26, 2021, the SPD achieved 21.4 percent. The Greens were in second place with 18.9 percent, followed by the CDU with 18.0 percent. At that time, the left received 14.1 percent, the AfD 8.0 and the FDP 7.1 percent. Because many problems and mistakes arose during the election, the Berlin Constitutional Court ordered a complete rerun, which will take place on February 12.
For the survey, infratest dimap interviewed 1,540 eligible voters in Berlin between January 30 and February 1 by telephone and online. According to ARD, the range of fluctuation is 2 to 3 percentage points.
