For weeks, Ukrainian and Russian troops have been engaged in a bloody trench warfare in the Donbass. Russian President Putin is said to be dissatisfied with the slow progress. For this reason and because of the high casualties, it seems that older officers are increasingly intervening in what is happening.
The Russian army appears to be increasingly relying on retired military leaders to invade Ukraine. In a background discussion, a senior US Department of Defense official said he was aware of reports from Ukraine. Even if he himself has not seen any evidence for these reports, given the high Russian losses, it is likely that they are correct.
As a further indication that the reports are correct, the Pentagon official pointed to the reshuffle at the top of the Russian army. It is known that several generals have been relieved, he said. He does not want to comment on the details, leaving that to the Russian Defense Ministry. This had announced at the weekend that the Ukraine mission will now be controlled by Colonel General Alexander Lapin and General Sergei Surovikin. General Alexander Dwornikov, who was appointed commander only in April, was not mentioned in the communication. Other commanders are also said to have been replaced.
US military observers such as the "Institute for the Study of War" see the development as an indication that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not satisfied with the course of the war, but at the same time wants to avoid a general mobilization.
The British Ministry of Defense also reported on Monday, citing its secret services, that the Russian army would primarily use reservists in the coming weeks. The combat reserve consists of part-time volunteers who are actually intended for security tasks in the rear of the front, said London. The battalions are to be replenished with veterans who have served in the Russian army over the past five years.
A new assessment by British intelligence says Russian troops are badly scarred by their heavy casualties. They are "increasingly emaciated," writes the Ministry of Defense in its daily situation report. In the battle for Sieverodonetsk, the main components of six different armies were used for a tiny success. The Russian military leadership is currently accepting "a level of reduced combat effectiveness that will probably prove to be unsustainable in the long term," the British experts summed up.
How many soldiers Russia has already lost in its attack on Ukraine cannot be estimated independently. Ukraine puts the losses at 35,000 fighters. Moscow is keeping a low profile.
The Russian troops had recently conquered the city of Sievjerodonetsk in the Luhansk region and intensified their attacks on Lysychansk. The neighboring city is the last major one in the region still under Ukrainian control. Should Russian troops also capture Lysychansk, they could then target Kramatorsk and Sloviansk in Donetsk, the second Donbass sub-region.
According to the Pentagon official, Russia is paying for the advance with high losses. It is not a particularly large region, he said in the background discussion. "The Ukrainians will ask them anything for a tiny piece of land." According to their own statements, the Ukrainian armed forces fended off Russian attacks on an important supply route for Lysychansk over the weekend.
The Austrian officer and military historian Markus Reisner, on the other hand, is convinced that Russia is "massively superior" in the current fighting, which is why Ukraine has to "put in high stakes every day" without producing any successes. According to Reisner, Russia could encircle the Ukrainian army in the Donbass, but it doesn't do so "because Ukraine is constantly sending in soldiers and weapons that the Russians can destroy. They have the Ukrainians where they wanted them: in a kettle."
