A little music that is coming back, and which risks reviving political tensions between my majority and the opposition. 49.3 is expected to return to the National Assembly this Wednesday, September 27. The Council of Ministers has in fact ratified this possibility for the public finance programming bill, the examination of which begins this Wednesday evening. A very possible recourse to 49.3, the first of the season, but the twelfth of this government, six months after the last one, on pension reform.

Does the government have a majority to pass it? ” No. We take our responsibilities,” says an executive from the Renaissance group in the Assembly, who is counting on a triggering by Élisabeth Borne late Wednesday evening, a prediction shared by another Renaissance source.

Public debt would fall by just under four points, to 108.1% of GDP, still well above the EU limit of 60%. An “unambitious” trajectory based on “optimistic” growth hypotheses, criticized the High Council of Public Finances (HCFP) on Monday.

The fact remains that the executive is absolutely committed to the text, arguing that its rejection would threaten the payment by Brussels to France of 17.8 billion euros over the period 2023-2024. An argument which struggles to convince most of the opposition, determined to vote against the bill, debated from 9:30 p.m. on Wednesday. “This remains a hypothesis, I do not deny it, but it is in no way a certainty as it is presented,” insisted the president of the Finance Committee Éric Coquerel (LFI) before the adoption of the text in committee.

The boss of LR in the Assembly Olivier Marleix also closed the door. “They must not count on us to co-manage the calamitous situation in which the country finds itself today. »

The National Rally surprised the committee by choosing to abstain and did not rule out repeating this gesture in the hemicycle. “We do not believe in the credibility of your programming law,” said RN Jean-Philippe Tanguy. But he also announced that the “RN will make a choice of conscience and responsibility” on the question of the billions potentially threatened, sparking criticism from the left. “The decision has absolutely not been recorded,” said several RN deputies contacted by AFP on Tuesday.

Jean-Philippe Tanguy clarified that his group could “possibly abstain”, provided it is convinced of the threat to European credits, and if the government makes a move on the increase in taxes on non-road diesel. But the idea of ??adoption thanks to the RN hardly appeals to the presidential camp. The government and the majority have “no interest in taking the slightest risk”, believes a Renaissance MP, pleading for a quick 49.3.

There is “a strong probability that we will move to 49.3 quickly”, admitted a minister on Tuesday. We must “trivialize this act”, he notes, because Élisabeth Borne, in the absence of an absolute majority in the Assembly, will be led to draw around ten 49.3 in the fall from the budgets of the State and Social Security. For Senator Hervé Marseille (UDI), the executive thinks that to “finish quickly and well, you need a 49.3 which allows you to absolve yourself from the RN”.