Troublemaking or Strategy?: What Could Be Behind the Crimean Attacks

There have been attacks and explosions in Crimea for weeks.

Troublemaking or Strategy?: What Could Be Behind the Crimean Attacks

There have been attacks and explosions in Crimea for weeks. Rockets are falling on Russian military installations on the peninsula, where many Russians vacation. There is still speculation about the weapon systems. Also about whether Ukraine is behind it. After all, she wants to reconquer Crimea, which was annexed by Russia.

For weeks now, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been promising his compatriots that he wants to bring back the annexed Crimean peninsula in the Black Sea, back to Ukraine.

Attacks and explosions in Crimea have been increasing for a month now. According to international law, it belongs to Ukraine, but Russia annexed it in 2014. Since then, Moscow has been upgrading there and massively expanding its military presence. From Crimea, Russia has launched many attacks on southern Ukraine, using Sukhoi Su-24 fighter jets and Sukhoi Su-30 multirole fighters.

Fighter jets are stationed at the Saki air force base in western Crimea and at the Belbek airfield near Sevastopol. According to a secret NATO document, there are still around 32 aircraft in Belbek. Moscow has already brought ten to safety in Russia because of the attacks. According to the Ukrainian secret service, at least 24 planes and 14 helicopters were relocated within Crimea or to mainland Russia.

At the beginning of August there were several large explosions at the Saki air base. Huge, mushroom-shaped columns of smoke were seen near Yevpatoria. Satellite images show three craters of roughly the same size.

Several Russian fighter planes and a large amount of ammunition were destroyed. There are different figures for how many jets burned down. Satellite images show at least seven, the British Ministry of Defense reported eight fighter jets, Ukraine ten. In an interview with ntv.de, military expert Markus Reisner from the Theresian Military Academy in Wiener Neustadt reported that the fighter squadron had lost about half of its aircraft.

It is not yet clear what caused the explosions. Russia said it was an accident. Markus Reisner doesn't think that's very plausible. "If you look at the pattern, you can see four strikes exactly in a right-angled L with nearly equal distances between those four strikes. And all at almost the same time, which suggests it wasn't a sabotage attack." Far-reaching weapon systems were behind this, as in the attack on the "Moskva", according to Reisner.

The "Moskva" was the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which was sunk in mid-April. Ukraine claims responsibility.

The situation is different with the explosions in Crimea, where Kyiv has not taken responsibility. However, many observers believe that it was a targeted Ukrainian attack - because of the number and force of the explosions. And the Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podoliak tweeted this sentence afterwards: "This is only the beginning."

Exactly how the attack was carried out is a mystery. The Saki airbase is far beyond the range of the modern missiles that Western countries have so far sent to Ukraine. The US says it couldn't have been their guns.

The military expert Gustav Gressel from the European Council on Foreign Relations suspects in an interview with ntv.de that Ukraine has used a ballistic missile of its own production: a Grom 2. This system has existed in Ukraine since the early 2000s under different names, explains Gressel.

But these are only indications. Because an independent investigation of the impact site is currently not possible, says Markus Reisner. Both Ukraine and Russia did not let their cards be looked at: "The Russians have already recognized on site which systems they are based on the examination of the craters and the forensic possibilities. But when the Russians say that we were attacked by this and that system, they would at the same time admit that their own anti-aircraft defenses had failed."

About a week after the big explosion in western Crimea, there was another one in mid-August. This time in a Russian ammunition depot, a former farm near Dschankoj. A large fire and a thick plume of black smoke were seen in videos posted on social media.

Russia spoke of sabotage. The Russian secret service FSB arrested six men from the Islamist organization Hizb ut-Tahrir in Dzhankoy. In an interview with ntv.de, political expert Stefan Meister sees this only as a diversionary maneuver so that Kyiv does not have to be held responsible.

Ukraine has so far kept a low profile. Observers see Ukraine as the culprit. The attack shows that Crimea is anything but safe, according to ntv reporter Rainer Munz. "And of course that is absolutely a problem for the Kremlin. Because that's what was always promised: Crimea is ours and Crimea is safe."

The Institute for the Study of War writes that Ukraine may want to disrupt Russian supply lines with the attacks in Crimea. Because Crimea supports the Russian army on the Ukrainian mainland. Thus the troops on the west bank of the Dnipro are cut off. And Ukraine could eventually regain control of the West Bank.

Military expert Carlo Masala thinks the Ukrainians simply want to unleash chaos among Russian troops, and they are succeeding. One thing is clear: the attacks in Crimea put the Russian leadership under pressure. "They haven't confirmed them yet because they're embarrassed," Gustav Gressel is convinced.

Markus Reisner believes it is possible that Russia will use its strategic air force to take revenge on Ukraine. "This puts Russia under pressure. Of course, it must also be able to show its own population that it is not prepared to accept that."

Ukraine is also apparently trying to pressure Russia with attacks around Sevastopol. At the end of July, a drone landed at the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. In mid-August, the Russian air defense shot down a drone over the headquarters. Burning parts had smashed into the roof.

After that, the anti-aircraft defense around Sevastopol shot down several more "objects". Among other things, over the military airfield Belbek. According to the Crimean government, air defenses were also deployed in the west of the peninsula.

At the time, Russia admitted that Ukraine was responsible for the attacks. But Moscow also said, to reassure the Russian population: The flying objects are small and can hardly cause serious damage, the effect is more psychological.

That's exactly what matters, says military expert Markus Reisner. The attacks in Crimea would not have any measurable effects. It's more about psychological warfare: "The psychological effect shouldn't be underestimated because these spectacular attacks by Western support send a signal: Look, we still have options that make it possible for us to remain on the initiative. That means it makes sense to continue supporting Ukraine."

And that's what the West wants to do, too. Chancellor Olaf Scholz promised Ukraine a large arms package last week. It includes state-of-the-art anti-aircraft systems, rocket launchers, tanks and ammunition. The Ukrainian army will also need it to recapture Crimea.