After the fighting for Sievjerodonetsk and Lysychansk, the war in Ukraine has slowed down somewhat: the Russians are repositioning themselves before an attack in the direction of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, and the Ukrainians are preparing for a counteroffensive in the south.
After capturing the twin cities of Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk, the last important centers of the Ukrainian Luhansk region, Russia and the military leadership in Moscow have taken an "operational pause". This in no way means that the fighting has stopped: the Russians are shelling Bakhmut and Sloviansk in an attempt to lay the foundations for an attack in the Ukrainian-controlled part of the neighboring Donetsk district.
Nonetheless, the intensity of fighting on the front lines has subsided. In the southern Ukrainian districts of Cherson and Zaporizhia, which are partially occupied by Russia, the Ukrainians are slowly trying to take positions for the larger counterattack indicated by Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov. At the same time, the deliveries of the US HIMARS multiple rocket launchers are paying off: Russian ammunition depots in the occupied territory are blown up every day, which complicates the logistics of the Russian army.
"Of course, Lysychansk and Sievjerodonetsk are losses for Ukraine, but they are not a tragedy," says Oleksiy Melnyk, a former lieutenant colonel in the Ukrainian army and co-director of international security programs at the Kiev think tank Centr Razumkova. "However, one cannot say that the Russians have achieved much there either. There is scorched earth there, the symbolic meaning of the occupation of the absolute majority of the Luhansk region is much greater than the actual." After all, the Ukrainians would have prevented an encirclement like in Mariupol and thus saved parts of the combat-ready troops. According to Melnyk, the Russians suffered enormous losses and, above all, had to reduce the intensity of the fighting.
"After a long battle, the Russian army was successful there because it massively concentrated its firepower and returned to traditional tactics with large deployments of artillery and air force. In fact, they did exactly what they did in Chechnya," further explains the prominent Ukrainian military expert. "In any case, the Ukrainians retreated to well-prepared defense lines, and it will be extremely difficult for the Russians to achieve success in the Donetsk region with their losses."
In addition, Russia's declared political goal of occupying the entire Donbass leads to this concentration of forces there. This gives Ukrainians opportunities for counter-offensives in the south or in the partly occupied Kharkiv region north of the Donbass.
Melnyk considers it an "interesting approach" that the counter-offensive in the Cherson and Zaporizhia districts is being announced openly, for example by the Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Wereshchuk, who has called on the local population to leave these areas. "Normally, attack operations are not announced. However, we can see here that the Ukrainian government wants to warn and protect its own citizens in a targeted manner," says Melnyk.
Oleksandr Mussiyenko, head of the Ukrainian center for military law studies, who considers the statements by the Kiev defense minister about an "army of millions" to be "a bit exaggerated", perceived Oleksiy Reznikov's statements in the British "Times" differently: "That was more the announcement that President Zelenskyy has ordered that corresponding plans for a counter-offensive be drawn up. This is perfectly normal, but of course the details of these plans must remain secret."
"I think it's a realistic task to stabilize the basic situation at the front by the fall. I'm optimistic that after the Russians are regrouped, that can also happen in the Donetsk region," Mussiyenko stressed. After that, the transition to a counter-offensive in the south is realistic. However, further supplies of weapons from the West are urgently needed for this: "We are just seeing how the HIMARS multiple rocket launchers are working," says the expert. "The systematic destruction of the Russian ammunition depots is a major logistical problem for the Russians, which they probably didn't expect in this form."
It is not entirely clear how many Western multiple rocket launchers are already in service at the front, but a little more than 20 have been promised - including three MARS II systems from Germany. "We have to see when they all really arrive," says Mussiyenko. "That's not bad, but of course not enough. But I'm more optimistic here than some who say that we need 100 or more such systems. If we have 50, that would be very good."
One must also understand that Western stocks are not infinite. "I do not share the alarmist opinion that far too little help is being sent. A lot is developing in the right direction. Now that the issue of multiple rocket launchers has been closed, we have to talk about equipping them with longer-range missiles - the previous ones are effective, but they can only reach destinations within a 80 kilometer radius." However, there are also rockets with a range of 150 and 300 kilometers.
"But one should also talk about the delivery of combat aircraft, whether Soviet or Western design. The mixture of multiple rocket launchers and combat aircraft would give us really good cards," believes Mussiyenko, who admits that the war could last a very long time: "The return to the status quo of February 23 is the objective goal. The forces of the Russians also have their limits. But the trench warfare after the active phase, which could perhaps end this year, can still take a long time in many places."
The arms deliveries are all the more important, says Oleksiy Melnyk from the Razumkova center: "The voices, including from Germany, with demands for the cessation of military aid, especially at this stage when Ukraine is preparing for a number of counter-offensives, are fatal and harmful."
"If the German intellectuals are really intellectuals, then they have to understand that the main reason for the difficult situation today - the completely unfounded Russian aggression - cannot be eliminated without weapons and only with some kind of peace initiatives and sanctions," emphasizes military expert Oleksandr Mussiyenko, alluding to the open letters. "It is perfectly obvious that Putin would only see this as a weakness."
