According to the United Nations, 220,000 people could suffer from famine in Somalia this year, and 8.3 million are likely to face acute food insecurity. A huge challenge for humanitarian organizations working in the country. Director of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) for Somalia, Jürg Eglin nevertheless believes that "Somali society is more resilient" than in the past.
I happened to be in Somalia during the famine of 1992. It was total anarchy, just after the collapse of the regime, when the warlords took power. Everything was broken. This political crisis, combined with a severe drought, had plunged many Somalis into an extremely difficult situation. But that was another era. What sticks in my mind is the misery and devastation that reigned in Mogadishu. The human suffering was enormous, very visible, and the mortality particularly high.
Today, the climate situation is just as critical. For three years, the country has seen almost no rain. Humanitarian indicators are at their lowest. But Somalia is better equipped to deal with it. The state is not yet fully functional, of course, but society is more resilient. It relies on a solid network of private and business services that allow the delivery of aid to communities. This is the reason why the country has not sunk despite the drama it is going through.
Somalia has experienced repeated humanitarian crises for three decades. The situation is either critical, or very critical, and sometimes even catastrophic. Unfortunately, more or less intense clashes are added to natural disasters and droughts. Our added value within the ICRC is to succeed in reaching hard-to-reach areas and to deal with groups that otherwise do not engage with international organizations. With the Chabab [terrorist organization affiliated with Al-Qaeda], we try against all odds to have a humanitarian dialogue and to work for the populations who live under their control.
My impressions on the ground are that there is a very dynamic new administration that has settled in Mogadishu. It is very different from what I experienced thirty years ago, when the authorities were non-existent. The problem is that if you look at a map, the Al-Shabaab still largely hold the rural areas. In the countryside, access to public services is limited, people have to fend for themselves. There is a huge gap between the façade of big cities and the reality of other areas. The government's task remains immense. As far as the ICRC is concerned, we do not interfere with political agendas and always maintain our position of neutrality.
Yes, and we must take it into account. The military offensive launched last year makes things unpredictable and forces us to react very quickly. Take for example the latest crisis, in Las Anod, in the north of the country [185,000 displaced due to communal conflict since February]: the political dispute has taken an extremely violent turn; many internally displaced people are on the road. But we cannot intervene overnight. You have to knock on doors, get security guarantees, then send teams, assess and then help. The slightest misstep can put you in danger.
The future is dark. What society can rural Somali communities and internally displaced people invent? Climate change is gradually ending the semi-nomadic lifestyle of some Somalis. When cattle and grazing circuits are exhausted, whereas they are the base of these pastoral and clan societies, any return to this way of life seems compromised. What's the alternative? There are some projects to rationalize agriculture or manage herds, but not on a sufficient scale. If you fly over Somalia today, you realize that there is little fertile land. Getting back to where it was thirty years ago would require two things: capital and stability. The conditions are not met.
In Somalia, the ICRC had a very ambitious budget for 2022 of 120 million Swiss francs [approximately 121 million euros], which we fully disbursed. Today, we are facing great difficulties in financing our operations in Somalia. And more broadly, as an institution, we had a very difficult year in 2022 due to the various emergencies in Europe, Ukraine, but also due to inflation and donor priorities.
