France's objective is still the same: reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 compared to 1990. To achieve this, this Monday, September 18, the government presented its plan to the parties , which he had revealed in broad terms in July. The goal of this ecological planning: to reduce France's greenhouse gas emissions from 403.8 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (Mt CO2e) in 2022 to 270 million in 2030, according to the general secretariat for ecological planning , piloted by Antoine Pellion.
After many postponements since the beginning of the summer, this Monday, September 18, marks the start of a week of exchanges with political forces and civil society that the presidency hopes will be “nourished.” If this objective is met, what will France look like in 2030?
This is the greatest potential for reduction according to the government. The total share of renewable energies in all electricity production will have to increase from 26% to 34% by 2030. Solar energy will have to be multiplied by three, offshore wind, by almost four, while onshore wind power will have to increase by more than 55%. Biogas will have to increase from 8 terawatt hours in 2020 to 50 in 2030.
The fifty highest emitting sites excluding refining will thus have to go from 43 Mt CO2e emitted in 2022 to 25, and the rest of the industry from 33 to 20. The objectives for reducing emissions from refining activities, which are particularly polluting, are not specified.
The tertiary sector will also have to learn to do without fuel oil (more than 80% reduction requested) and gas (around -40%) via its boilers. The government was considering banning the installation of new gas boilers, but a revolt in the sector seems to have pushed it back, like a debate which also took place in Germany this summer.
The government predicts that 66% of new cars sold in 2030 will be electric, compared to 15% today (in 2035, according to a European law, it will be 100%). Increasing the proportion of electric cars on the road from 1% to 15%.
The government is counting on an explosion in carpooling, a huge source of savings: while the number of carpooled trips per day is 21,000 per day in 2023, it will have to increase to 196,000 in 2030.
The number of cycle paths will have to reach 150,000 kilometers in 2030 compared to 61,000 at the end of 2023, while the shares of trips made by train and urban public transport will also have to grow, by 20 billion passenger km for the former and by 15 billion for the second.
The government recognizes that air traffic can only be controlled: in mainland France, it will increase from 237 billion passenger kilometers transported in 2019 to 265 in 2030 (a slightly smaller increase than between 2015 and 2019).
Annual domestic emissions from the building sector will have to be reduced by more than half, with two major levers. On the one hand, the government hopes to see the number of overall housing renovations increase tenfold via MaPrimeRenov, up to 900,000 per year in 2030.
The secretariat is counting on 21% of organic areas for large crops in 2030 compared to 6% today, and on a 30% reduction in the consumption of mineral nitrogen, the main ingredient in synthetic fertilizers and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. greenhouse effect.
Other levers: fewer tractors running on diesel, and the doubling of legume crops.
The government plan does not set any target for reducing meat consumption, but notes a “trend decline” in cattle herds (cow burps contain methane, a powerful greenhouse gas) estimated at 12% by 2030.
Emmanuel Macron will conclude the discussions which open this week on Monday September 25 by presenting “the vision and direction of France”. If the "major balances" of this strategy are known, the government plan is "not at all finalized", say those around the Head of State. The latter thus responds to “the will of the political forces” who said during the meeting with the president at the end of August in Saint-Denis that they wanted to “make comments and propose modifications”, added an advisor.
On September 25, at the conclusion of these discussions, and at the end of a new meeting at the Élysée, Emmanuel Macron will take the floor to detail this ecological planning, a “policy without precedent in France for decades and without equivalent in Europe,” assures those around him. It will also focus on France's commitments in terms of climate and biodiversity on the international scene. Between now and the end of the year, several presidential trips will be devoted to illustrating his strategy.