According to the best-known Apple analysts, the group could completely cancel or at least postpone the next iPhone SE generation. One reason for this should be the disappointing sales of the cheaper iPhone models. Overall, the outlook for the smartphone industry is rather meager.
The current crises are also leaving their mark on Apple. Among other things, the analysts at Morgan Stanley recently reduced the sales forecast for iPhones for the fourth quarter by 3 million devices again due to the corona unrest in China. They had previously reduced their estimate by 6 million units. They now expect a total of just 75.5 million iPhones to be sold instead of the previous 85 million.
According to the unerring analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, Apple is also struggling with disappointing demand for mid-to-low-priced iPhones such as the SE 3, 13 mini and 14 Plus. His latest survey has shown that the company is likely to cancel or postpone production of the iPhone SE 4 as a result, he tweeted.
Another possible reason, according to Kuo, is concern that an updated design with Face ID instead of Touch ID could lead to higher costs and thus higher prices. Overall, reducing unnecessary spending on new product development could help Apple weather the challenges of the global economic recession in the coming year. The upcoming iPhone SE is said to be based on the four-year-old iPhone XS.
At the end of September, "Bloomberg" reported that Apple had canceled plans to increase iPhone production because the expected increase in demand had not occurred. The company has informed its suppliers that they no longer have to prepare for an increase in production by 6 million units in the second half of the year.
"Bloomberg" saw the lack of demand for Apple products at that time as a sign of a general slowdown in global demand as central banks raised interest rates to combat inflation. Apple itself did its part by hefty euro price increases.
The increase in the simple iPhone 14 was particularly blatant, which hardly shows any improvements compared to its predecessor, but still costs at least 1000 euros. But outside of the euro zone, that doesn't matter. Apparently, the large Plus version of the standard model, which was newly introduced instead of a new iPhone mini, flops here.
In mid-November, "9to5Mac" quoted the analyst Ross Young, who specializes in display supply chains, assuming that almost no panels for the production of the iPhone 14 Plus will be delivered in December. However, demand for the Pro models is greater than last year, which is why overall display sales for the 14 series are on track to increase by 10 percent. Despite the failure of the iPhone 14 Plus, there should be a successor in the coming year.
If things remain stagnant, Apple will still be doing well in a very difficult environment that threatens to become even more difficult. Kuo wrote yesterday that there seems to be no reason for optimism for all major tech sectors going into 2023 either. Apple is weaker than usual, and the fundamentals in electric vehicles and servers are not as solid as the market is expecting.
At the beginning of December, the market research company IDC lowered its forecast for this year by an additional 2.6 percent and is now assuming a global decline in smartphone sales of 9.1 percent. For 2023, IDC still expects a slight recovery of 2.8 percent. Because of the macroeconomic environment, however, it reduced the forecast by 70 million devices.
The market researchers are hoping for a stronger recovery in the second half of the year. Global economic growth could help emerging markets, while in developed markets rising costs have been offset by increased promotional activity, more attractive trade-in offers and expanded financing plans. This has supported growth in the upper market segment.
