Five possible scenarios for the labyrinth of the Brexit

If the 'premier' fails in its attempt to renegotiate the agreement with Brussels, Uk will have to maneuver again to the spiral of Brexit Brussels insists

Five possible scenarios for the labyrinth of the Brexit

If the 'premier' fails in its attempt to renegotiate the agreement with Brussels, Uk will have to maneuver again to the spiral of Brexit

Brussels insists that "there will renegotiate or the departure agreement, or safeguarding"

Theresa May has undertaken a european tour to try to save the agreement of the Brexit

Theresa May returns to the continent to try and get you a better deal for the Brexit that the approved by the European Parliament on 25 November last. Aware that I was not going to overcome the vote scheduled for Tuesday in the House of Commons, the leader of conservative you have opted to activate a mechanism for postponing the vote, as late, until the next January 21.

His hope: that the division between the 'tories' who want it, throw it in his post, labour is raised to orchestrate a censure motion and that does not waive the holding of a second referendum, and finish by presenting it as the only real option in front of the ghost of the 'no deal'. If it fails, the Government will have 21 days to develop a plan of action that can lead to five different scenarios, including a motion of censure against it.

Renegotiate with Brussels

The position in the European Union is clear. For Brussels this is "the only agreement is possible", at least on the important issues, so the strategy of carrying out some touch-up aesthetic to be able to make a second round of voting has already left behind. If the 27 agree to reopen negotiations in order to avoid an exit without an agreement, the Uk should ask for an extension on the application of article 50 for delaying a Brexit, which should be adopted by unanimity in the European Council. The british Parliament should also adopt certain changes in their legislation to the output of the EU.

Exit from the EU without an agreement

Faced with a refusal of the EU to renegotiate important issues within the agreement as the border in Ireland, Theresa May could be forced to redirect the situation towards the 'no deal'. For this you would have to have the approval parliament, so that if there is this option and it is rejected, the more likely it is that you finish out of the Government via a motion of censure, or by his own resignation to keep the power in the hands of the conservatives.

Theresa May leaves of be first minister

Theresa May and her cabinet are at risk of disconnecting from the multiple realities that there are now in the House of Commons. If so, right now there are two routes on the table that could end with a change of Government: a motion of censure and a vote of no confidence internal.

labour will begin to consider organizing a motion of censure that would require the rebels 'tories' to thrive. However, even though they do not want to May as 'premier', would surely prefer to it before that put in risk the current power of the party. If approved, the country would have 14 days to form a Government before convened a new general election that could be held, as soon as 25 days after.

The other option is that, without putting in risk your position in the Government, within the conservative party is engineer creates a no-confidence vote by getting the 48 cards necessary to argue back to May the leadership of the 'tories', which would open up an internal war in the formation in the absence of a successor clear.

New general election

The conservatives want to avoid at all costs to put back into play his position, and even more after how close they were from the bump in the June elections of 2017, so it seems unlikely that the idea quit at least of them. In addition,Jeremy Corbyn points rather to the motion of no-confidence first, so if you get that you celebrate, and May the exceeds by little, the leader labour could argue that it does not have the sufficient support parliamentary and ask for new elections. To achieve the support for the initiative, which needs two-thirds of the chamber in favour, the United Kingdom should request an extension of the article 50 to exit the EU.

Call for a second referendum

The option that more force is picking up from some sectors, but without a doubt the most vertigo gives a country that begins to see the output of the European Union as a never-ending process. If you May decide to go that way, option highly unlikely for her eternal mantra that the Brexit will be done yes or yes, practically it would be forced to resign to support the Parliament or not, since it would be unlikely that it was she who abanderase now a new referendum. In this case, the Uk should also ask for an extension of article 50, as it is estimated that it would take at least five months of preparation to raise a new query.

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Date Of Update: 13 December 2018, 20:01

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