Spain, the first large western country to overcome 70% of vaccinated population, has also been the one that has been more clearly shown to the world that this objective was very short. At least in two senses: first, because we will need 90% or more to get closer to group immunity. And second, because understanding the vaccine as a magic solution, outside the rest of health recommendations, it does not help to contain the epidemic, and so the Fifth Wave in summer was revealed.
Autumn starts with the double challenge of recovering the rhythm of vaccination, stagnant from mid-August, and keep a virus at bay that could, as he already did last year, extend even more with the arrival of cold and life in spaces Closed The month of July began with two consecutive records: between days 1 and 2, a million dose was administered in Spain. Vaccine arriving, vaccine that was put. Now, on the other hand, there is one six million doses waiting in the refrigerators.
In the last days, an average of 40,000 doses a day in Spain have been administered, just over 5% of what was pricked at the beginning of summer. It has almost returned to the levels of the first months, even when reinforcements are now reinforcers and third doses. The countries that vaccinated the faster in winter --eeuu, Israel, the United Kingdom ... - They also suffered a similar slowdown. There is a percentage of the population that is looking forward to vaccinating and goes as soon as they call it; But there are other groups to which it costs more to access, and the rhythm stagnates.
The good news is that our country, like Portugal, has an acceptance of the vaccine much higher than that has been seen elsewhere. The bad thing is that, even so, it is possible that it is not possible to obtain group immunity. "What is done so far demonstrates a high capacity of the health system; People believe in the system," says Joan Carles March, professor at Andalusian School of Public Health. "What is the problem? That what is missing is the difficult," he continues.
"Normally, when vaccination is made in any group, the difficult thing is found from 70%," explains March. "70% [for group immunity] was an initial assessment, centered on the Wuhan variant. When we had mostly the Alpha, British variant, it should have been said at that time that with 70% is not enough, which is necessary A higher percentage. And, when the delta came, we left 90%, at least. It forces us to vaccinate practically 100% of the population, and that is the difficult thing, "summarizes March.
"We have all sinned about that, of having group immunity," Maceol, MEDICAL Director of the Clinical Hospital San Carlos. We started with 70%, then 80%, then with 90% ... Then: 'Well, group immunity is no longer important, let's go another thing.' That produces effects on the population, although we do not want to see it, and in the behavior of citizens, sure, "he warns. That is, our two problems, that the goal was short and that it costs us to accompany vaccination with health measures Public, they are related.
An example: being able to travel with the Covid certificate was one of the keys, according to Mayol, so that people decided to vaccinate massively, perhaps in many cases without a real interest in protecting themselves. The data, in effect, reflect a clear parion as of August 15, when the majority already had the vacation resolved. Without the bait of being able to travel, goodbye to records. How to convince the millions of people who are still going for the goal of 90%? "Each point that increases is more difficult," March intervene.
"The key to reaching 90% is not to think that it is going to be achieved in any way, but it is necessary to analyze group to group. It is not a matter of calling to know if it is going to be vaccinated, but you have to call to know. Why he has not gone, what are the reasons, and what would help him go, "he continues March. "On the other hand, it would be necessary to make focal groups with population of the different age groups to try to know why they have not been vaccinated and know what to do to vaccinate."
One of the keys, emphasizes the public health professor, will be arriving at the groups between 40 and 59, where people who have not been vaccinated have a significant risk and, however, have come to a lesser extent than those of those of 60 and more years. On the contrary, March proposes "not entering a war with the denialists," which represent "6%, 7%" of the Spanish population. "Going for them is a mistake," he says, although he does consider it important that they do not bring the undecided to his field.
What margin is left, then, to approach the goal? "I think we're going to get to improve. Arriving 90% is not easy, but improve the current percentage, no doubt," SOPES MARCH. "There are communities that are going to reach 90%, and I think that 80% are going to reach all. But, between 80% and 90%, or beyond 90%, it will be more difficult."
Date Of Update: 17 October 2021, 22:02
