Viktor Orban and his government have yet to give pledges, but they have taken the road back to the rule of law. The vote, Wednesday, by the Hungarian Parliament, of a reform which depoliticizes the judicial system is a first step which brings Hungary closer to the European jackpot: 28 billion euros, including 22 billion under the cohesion funds and the 5, 8 billion euros from the recovery plan. The disbursement of European funds is nevertheless still suspended under various conditions, to the chagrin of Hungarian officials.
The Commission and the Council still need to ensure that the judicial reform is properly implemented. The law is expected to be signed into law by President Katalin Novak and come into effect on June 1. So far, the reform formally meets the four super milestones negotiated by the Hungarian government with the Commission: the strengthening of the role and powers of the independent National Judicial Council to limit arbitrary decisions in the administration of courts, the reform functioning of the Supreme Court to protect it from the risks of political influence, the elimination of the role of the Constitutional Court in the review of final decisions of judges at the request of public authorities, and the impossibility for the Supreme Court to review the preliminary questions that the judges intend to submit to the European Court of Justice.
But there are other milestones – about 20 – which have not yet been met by Hungary. “No recovery plan payments will occur until all of these 27 milestones are met,” said a senior Commission official.
In addition, Hungary was the subject of a Council measure on budgetary conditionality linked to the rule of law. There, it must demonstrate that it ensures that European funds will not be misappropriated, that the procedures for fraud will be well initiated and that the fight against conflicts of interest and the integrity of public contracts will be very real. Here too, Hungary has committed to implementing numerous corrective measures (21 in total). The Budget Commissioner, the Austrian Johannes Hahn, after evaluating the first implementations, had estimated that "the account is not there" and maintained his proposal to block 65% of European funds intended for Hungary, i.e. 5 .7 billion euros. The Council, in December, to rectify the blocking at 55% of the funds.
But justice reform remains, by far, the cornerstone of the system. Without an independent judiciary, no fraudulent act will be seriously punished. So, if all goes well, Hungary will eventually recover 85% of the sums allocated to it. One wonders to what extent Fidesz, the ruling party, can afford a truly independent judiciary. If the judges are really free to investigate, a certain number of Fidesz executives or friends of power could have to answer for prosecutions hitherto unthinkable...
To recover the last 15% (i.e. 2.6 billion euros), the Commission is still waiting for three more steps: eliminating from the so-called law on the protection of children all measures that are unnecessarily discriminatory towards LGBT people (3%) , restoring academic freedom (9%) and guaranteeing the rights of asylum seekers (3%). Here, there is little chance that the Orban government will modify anything in its various legislations. In any case, the Commission will assess progress within three months of each request for payment, but the final decision is always taken by the Council, by qualified majority.
The Budapest regime absolutely needs European funds, if only to deal with the social demands that are mounting in the country. Protests by teachers for salary increases have persisted for months. The Hungarian school system suffers from two ills that combine: depressed demographics are gradually emptying the classrooms while the poverty of salaries no longer attracts the vocations of teachers in sufficient numbers.
In addition, the regime has taken it into its head to frame the programs by infusing them with its political values. Thus, in education, a list of obligatory writers has been established. Some of the authors are known for their anti-Semitism, their racism... In short, a list that the teaching body repudiates. The Hungarian power sees in it, for its part, the means of a cultural revenge on the left.
