The economy confirms its brake: GDP rebounded by 2% in the summer months with retreat consumption

The Spanish economy rebounded 2% during the third quarter of the year, which represents an increase of just nine tenths with respect to the revised Data of the

The economy confirms its brake: GDP rebounded by 2% in the summer months with retreat consumption

The Spanish economy rebounded 2% during the third quarter of the year, which represents an increase of just nine tenths with respect to the revised Data of the Second Quarter. And in year-new terms, the rebound was 2.7%, "rate 14.8 points lower than that of the second quarter of 2021," the National Institute of Statistics (INE) explains.

The progress of the national accounting data also shows that the consumption of families, one of the great pillars of the Spanish economy, contracted 0.5% in the summer months, negative data that is even more if it is Compare 4.7% that grew in the previous quarter.

These negative or, at least, not very positive figures are known after yesterday the greatest inflation data was known since 1992 and after the historical statistical rebate carried out the growth data of the second quarter. In its advanced estimate, that is, the same one that has published this Friday but referring to the months of April to May, the INE estimated that the growth had been 2.8%. But when he completed him with the information he was missing and reviewed it, the result was that, in fact, the rebound had been 1.1%.

This lesser growth, attached to the strong pursuit of energy and the problems of bottlenecks in global chains, has unleashed an avalanche of negative revisions in the expected growth for both this year and for the following. And that, in turn, has dismantled the draft general budgets of the State (PGE) for 2022 since the macro table on which they are based contains unrealistic figures.

The Bank of Spain or the Independent Fiscal Responsibility Authority (AIREF) has been aimed at this week, and the body led by Pablo Hernández de Cos has been especially critical by also questioning tax revenue forecasts. The aero, on the other hand, put concrete figures for the expected evolution of the economy: this year, the rebound will be 5.5%, one point less than 6.5% that the Government foresees; And the next, the progress will amount to 6.3%, also from 7% that the executive has reflected in his macro painting. And the known figures do nothing more than affect the same direction.

After publishing the data, from the Ministry of Economy it has stood out that "along with the data of the known EPA yesterday, this data of GDP confirms that during the third quarter the recovery has accelerated." That is, it has tried to subtract down the importance that the data is somewhat disappointing and that it shows that recovery will be slower.

But, at the same time, it has also advanced that the fourth quarter could be more complicated than its initial forecasts showed. "These data place us in a good position to face a fourth quarter in which the balance of risks has changed and will be marked by bottlenecks in the offer, the rise in energy prices and its effect on inflation" , He has pointed out specifically. In other words: more difficulties are coming.

The National Statistics Institute (INE), as usual since the beginning of the pandemic and especially after the strong revision of the previous quarter, notifies that "the volume of advanced information from which it has been arranged in this advance has been less than On previous occasions ". "Most of the conjunctural statistical indicators offer days until the second month of the quarter," he adds. Therefore, when you complete the data that you lack, more or less important modifications may occur.

Updated Date: 29 October 2021, 07:28

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