For decades, children in the United States and the USSR have been trained in how to react to a nuclear attack.
A year after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, has this danger returned for new generations?
In the wake of his offensive, Vladimir Putin announced the alerting of his army's nuclear "deterrent force".
A “dangerous”, “irresponsible” announcement and an “unacceptable” escalation, hammered Washington in response, warning Moscow of the “catastrophic consequences” that this declaration could have.
But Moscow subsequently repeated these threats, worrying the world by not ruling out the possibility of resorting to the ultimate weapon.
For the first time since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, the world is at risk of an apocalypse, US President Joe Biden warned in October.
"There hadn't been a public announcement from Russia about an enhanced nuclear threat since the 1960s," said Avril Haines, director of US national intelligence.
Russian officials later wanted to clarify their remarks, stating that they would only use nuclear weapons in the face of an "existential threat", without specifying whether they included in this concept an attack targeting the four Ukrainian regions annexed in September by Moscow.
Although there have been no signs of a Russian nuclear mobilization, a group of scientists announced in January in the "Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists" that the doomsday clock now reads 90 seconds to midnight. , approaching the fateful hour that scientists hope will never be reached.
"Russia's thinly veiled threats to use nuclear weapons remind the world that an escalation of the conflict - accidentally, deliberately or by mistake - is a terrible risk. The possibility that the conflict could spiral out of control remains high. “, they indicated.
This situation is not only the result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but also of the breakdown or death of the treaties limiting strategic arms which had notably eased tensions during the Cold War.
The ABM Treaty (1972) banning anti-ballistic missiles, which has long been the keystone of the nuclear balance between the United States and the USSR, has been obsolete since 2002.
The one on intermediate-range nuclear forces (INF), signed in 1987, expired in 2019 after American and then Russian withdrawals.
And the recent announcement by Vladimir Putin of the suspension of Russian participation in the New Start strategic arms reduction treaty (2010), the last bilateral agreement of its kind linking Russians and Americans, deals a blow to the global security architecture.
According to the researcher specializing in weapons of mass destruction Pavel Podvig, the threats from Russia could paradoxically have made the world a little safer, by reminding new generations of the existence of the danger posed by atomic weapons.
He notes that Russia probably hoped to be able to quickly conclude its offensive in Ukraine because it had nuclear weapons.
But instead, Moscow came up against the support that NATO, also endowed with nuclear weapons, gave Kiev.
The war may have made it clear that nuclear weapons were "obsolete", concludes Mr Podvig. As Russia has seen, "they don't give you security," he added.
The researcher also insists on the strong reaction of rejection of the world leaders to the declarations on the nuclear of Moscow, in particular that of the allies of Russia, India and China.
These answers reinforced the idea that nuclear threats were taboo.
In September, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Vladimir Putin directly.
In November, the G20 declared at the end of its summit in Bali, Indonesia -- which Russia attended -- that the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons was "unconscionable".
Even more telling, according to Mr. Podvig, was the joint statement by Mr. Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Bali.
The two leaders agreed "that a nuclear war should never be fought and can never be won" and stressed their opposition to the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, according to their statement.
Washington, for its part, toned down its own rhetoric, refraining from repeating that the use of nuclear weapons would have "catastrophic consequences".
25/02/2023 16:33:59 - Washington (AFP) - © 2023 AFP
