Their arrival in the province of Cabo Delgado, the scene of the largest industrial project in Africa and a jihadist insurgency, was decisive. Deployed in July 2021 in northern Mozambique when insurgents linked to the Islamic State (IS) had taken over the district of Palma, close to the future gas site of TotalEnergies, and the strategic port of Mocimboa da Praia, the Rwandan soldiers are succeeded in a few weeks in partially securing the province. The French company, which had to suspend its activities because of the threats, would now be on the verge of resuming its work.
Three months after the start of the counter-offensive, Paul Kagame came to Mozambique to congratulate his troops. "We have shown what we are capable of doing with limited resources," the Rwandan president said on September 24, 2021. The rebels have been warned, we will not let them return to threaten the lives of Mozambicans. »
This intervention of 3,000 soldiers and police was partially funded by the European Union (EU) under the European Peace Facility, a mechanism to "support partners in the fields of defense in order to prevent conflicts and to strengthen international security". The Rwandan soldiers thus benefited from an assistance measure amounting to 20 million euros, intended in particular for the transport of their troops and the purchase of equipment (tents, vehicles, generators, etc.).
"Disciplined" and "efficient"
To defend the interests of TotalEnergies in Cabo Delgado, did France encourage this armed deployment? According to ARIA, a non-profit structure devoted to research on climate and energy-related subjects, the chronology of the meetings between Paul Kagame, his Mozambican counterpart, Filipe Nyusi, and Patrick Pouyanné, the CEO of TotalEnergies, the lets suppose.
"France was in favor of an agreement between Rwanda and Mozambique," says Benjamin Augé, author of the study "Mozambique: the security, political and geopolitical challenges of the gas boom" for the French Institute for International Relations (IFRI). ): “Filipe Nyusi's will was also to limit the role of the SADC armies [Southern African Development Community, whose soldiers are also deployed in the region] in order to reduce their influence. On this very particular terrain, he also had doubts about their abilities. »
On October 20, 2022, an EU note on the Rwandan intervention in Cabo Delgado specified that it could allow "the protection of political, security and economic interests". "These assistance measures are aimed at consolidating peace and fighting terrorism in Africa and elsewhere," said Nabila Massrali, spokesperson for the European External Action Service, the EU's diplomatic arm. When in December 2022, the European Council announced its support for the deployment of the Rwandan army in Mozambique, it announced other measures in favor of the armed forces of Mauritania [€12 million], Georgia [€20 million], Lebanese [6 million] and Bosnian [10 million]. There is always a very precise follow-up which makes it possible to control whether the funds are used as initially planned. Regarding Rwanda, it is about maintaining stability in Cabo Delgado. »
According to the NGO Armed Conflict Location
"The Rwandan soldiers are highly appreciated by the Mozambican population", assures Le Monde the writer and former diplomat Jean-Christophe Rufin, author of a report commissioned by TotalEnergies on the socio-economic consequences of the Mozambique LNG gas project, in which the French hydrocarbon giant owns 26.5% of the shares: "They are disciplined, efficient in their interventions, and their barracks are very well managed. In his report, the academician recommends on the other hand a review of the relations between Mozambique LNG and the Mozambican defense forces, at the origin of numerous abuses, according to several local NGOs. "A dialogue has been initiated with the Mozambican authorities to this end," TotalEnergies World reported.
The Central African precedent
In the short or medium term, could private companies from Kigali come and benefit from the intervention of the Rwandan soldiers? At the end of February, Radar Scape, a Rwandan company specializing in security, won an 800,000 dollar contract for the rehabilitation of housing. "The situation is quite vague, nothing is established yet," says Benjamin Augé. But after the success of the Rwandan army, TotalEnergies will not be able to deny the Rwandans their share of the cake. »
Concluding his speech in Mozambique, Paul Kagame told his soldiers that Rwanda must "now continue to protect and rebuild this country". Two years later, his military diplomacy gave him a certain political influence on the spot, as in the Central African Republic. According to the Rwandan defense ministry, 2,100 soldiers are currently deployed there as blue helmets and another 1,200 under a bilateral agreement to support and train Central African forces. In addition, more than a hundred Rwandan companies are currently registered in Bangui. They were only about twenty in 2019.
"The dual purpose of the Rwandan presence in the Central African Republic - providing security while seeking profit - could cause problems," warns the International Crisis Group (ICG) in a report titled "Rwanda's Growing Role in the Central African Republic": “Central Africans fear organized predation by Rwandan investors, who are seen as receiving unfair advantages from their government. This concern, reinforced by the secrecy surrounding Kigali's economic operations, could lead to looting and violence against Rwandans. »
Does Kigali intend to reproduce in Mozambique the same economic model as in the Central African Republic? The benefits are still difficult to measure, but a real ecosystem is developing in sectors such as mining or construction. Companies such as Macefield Ventures, NPD Limited or Strofinare Mozambique are already established. They are all affiliated with the powerful Crystal Ventures holding company, whose assets are valued at $500 million. Essential in Rwanda, this conglomerate present in engineering, construction or consumer goods is the financial arm of the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), the party in power since the end of the Tutsi genocide in 1994.
