In Tunisia, a few months before the end of President Kaïs Saïed's mandate on October 23, the stakes are high between an opposition which must face growing political repression and an authoritarian regime in decline. Scheduled "between September and October", according to the Independent High Authority for Elections (ISIE), the date of the vote has still not been set and the list of potential candidates will depend on the regime. Since the “coup de force” of the head of state on July 25, 2021, by which he assumed full powers by suspending Parliament, many political opponents have been imprisoned.
The first opposition group in Parliament before the suspension and then dissolution of the institution, the Islamo-conservative Ennahda party was greatly weakened by the ban on its activities and the arrest of several of its executives, including its historic leader, Rached Ghannouchi, accused among other things of “plot against state security”.
Weakened, the party does not plan to present a candidate in the presidential election. But this time, he is not calling for a boycott, unlike previous elections, with the aim of “closing the parenthesis of the coup by encouraging all parties to find a common initiative”, explains his secretary general, Ajmi Lourimi. This nevertheless specifies its conditions, which include holding the electoral process in compliance with democratic rules and the release of all political prisoners.
Towards a joint application?
Within the National Salvation Front (FSN), the main opposition coalition (of which Ennahda is a part), discussions are continuing around a common candidacy. “The FSN is not an electoral alliance, so nothing prevents several candidates from running if they can,” says Mr. Lourimi, who does not rule out the possibility of supporting candidates from outside the coalition, the exception of the Free Destourian Party (PDL), deeply opposed to the Islamists, whose leader, Abir Moussi, has been detained since October 3. “We disagree with her, but we also consider her a political prisoner and demand her release. Our struggle must take place at the ballot box,” underlines the Ennahda leader.
Also a victim of the wave of political repression, Ms. Moussi still seems to be preparing her candidacy from her cell in the Manouba women's prison (west of Tunis). In addition to her incarceration, she was destabilized by the policies led by Mr. Saïed. Before her arrest, part of the opposition accused this politician who has made publicity stunts one of her trademarks of tacitly supporting the head of state, sharing with him her aversion for the democratic transition process initiated after 2011. “Kaïs Saïed took away part of his electorate. Her imprisonment deprived her of a public platform,” analyzes Hamza Meddeb, researcher at the Carnegie Middle East Center.
Her party “will not support any candidate” other than her – at least in the first round – assured Karim Krifa, member of the PDL political bureau, on Sunday March 10 on Express FM radio, brushing aside the call launched on February 27 by Ayachi Hammami, former minister for human rights. This lawyer and activist drew up a road map whose first step would be the nomination of a common opposition candidate for an election which "could be a serious opportunity to save the country, to get rid of the dictatorship and to get out of the suffocating economic and social crisis”. For now, the idea has found little traction.
The latest barometer published by Tunisiameters, carried out at the beginning of March, shows a divided opposition, from which personalities like Safi Saïd and Lotfi Mraïhi are struggling to emerge (respectively 11.2% and 6.8% of voting intentions in the first round), both sovereignist candidates defeated in the last presidential election with low scores and who offer very few alternatives to Mr. Saïed's policies. Mondher Zenaidi, former minister under Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali, entered this opinion survey well with 7.1% voting intentions; but faced with this new competitor, the regime remains vigilant, bringing back corruption cases dating from 2011.
A persistent political paralysis
The absence of opposition raises the risk of a new election "without any real stakes", deplores Hamza Meddeb, highlighting a persistent political paralysis. Since the start of his authoritarian turn in July 2021, Mr. Saïed's political project has attracted less and less support from Tunisians, many of whom had celebrated his “coup de force”. The last local and legislative elections only brought together around 11% of the electorate each time. “The presidential election will be crucial because it is the keystone of the system in a context where the regime is weakened. So far, Kaïs Saïed has not succeeded in mobilizing,” comments Hamza Meddeb.
Five years after being propelled to the top of the State by a large score (72% of the votes in the second round), Kaïs Saïed, a 66-year-old jurist deemed "outside the system" and from no political background, can now count on the support of a party, that of Massar 25-July (“July 25 Movement”). Although the president is neither at the origin nor even a member, he would be the "founder of the idea of this movement", explains Mahmoud Ben Mabrouk, leader and spokesperson of the party, who claims to have only indirect contacts with the head of state, while acting in his favor: “We are in the process of doing a pre-campaign to support him. We will also prepare a consultation with young people to draft a program. This will normally be that of the president, we work consistently with him. »
Despite a lackluster record, marked by a high unemployment rate (16.4% in the last quarter), the entry into recession of the economy, recurring shortages and a risk of payment default, President Saïed still enjoys relative popular support. He is therefore widely favored for his re-election, according to Tunisiameters, with 23.7% of voting intentions, more than double that of Safi Saïd, who follows him. Although he has not officially announced his intention to run again, Mr. Saïed warned, in April 2023, that he would not be “ready to hand over [his] country to those who have no patriotism”, without giving more details. He is moving towards an election without real competition.
