Paraguay, torn between economic vitality and endemic corruption, elects its president on Sunday, an extremely undecided ballot that threatens seven decades of right-wing hegemony in Asuncion, and with potential diplomatic repercussions … even in China.
Santiago Peña, a 44-year-old economist, heir to the Colorado Party (conservative) in power almost continuously for 76 years, and Efrain Alegre, a 60-year-old lawyer who heads a center-left coalition, are the two favorites , in a neck and neck of rare uncertainty, according to the polls. The election is played over a single round.
Behind them, an "anti-system" candidate, Paraguayo Cubas, with a radical, anti-parliamentary speech, has experienced a remarkable breakthrough in recent weeks, up to 20% of voting intentions.
The polling stations opened Sunday morning at 7 a.m. local time (11 a.m. GMT), with already a strong presence, AFP noted.
Shortly before, the candidates had called on Paraguayans to vote in large numbers. “In peace and joy, may the ballot boxes be a place of harmony,” Mr. Peña asked. "A greater participation, greater democratic legitimacy", launched Mr. Alegre.
A defeat of the more than 100-year-old Colorado would mark a further shift to the left of a Latin American country, in line with a so-called "pink" wave, over the past five years, which has seen alternations from Mexico to Chile, from Colombia to Brazil.
Social issues were part of the themes of the campaign, as the "small" Paraguay (7.5 million inhabitants, but larger than Germany) offers strong contrasts.
Agricultural power (soya, meat), major exporter of electricity (giant Itaipu dam), its macroeconomic health (4.5% growth forecast in 2023, three times more than Latin America) masks lasting inequalities (24 .7% poor) and failing public health.
"It doesn't interest me. We're not going to vote," told AFP Albino Cubas, a resident of a "bañado", one of those regularly flooded slums on the banks of the Paraguay River in Asuncion. "There is not a serious proposal for the poor. No candidate will serve us."
"The country is full of privileged people. People earn 100 million guaranis (14,000 dollars) a month while at the same time others are starving," indignant Mr. Alegre, who is considering an egalitarian tax reform, but first a public sector austerity cure.
Formerly an activist against the dictatorship of Alfredo Stroessner (1954-1989), twice already a candidate for the presidency (2013, 2018), Mr. Alegre poses to AFP as a slayer of "the mafia" clientelist Colorado "linked to crime organised", a system now "collapsed" according to him.
Corruption also weighed in the election - the country is 137th out of 180 in the ranking of the NGO Transparency International.
Mr. Peña had to defend himself from the stigma weighing on his mentor, the ex-president (2013-2018) and tobacco magnate Horacio Cartes, whom Washington officially described in 2022 as "significantly corrupt" and banned from entering or leaving. transactions in the United States.
Because in a Paraguay with porous borders (landlocked between Brazil, Argentina and Bolivia), a major transit point for Andean cocaine, corruption is rampant, and now also kills: an anti-money laundering prosecutor, an anti-drug mayor and a journalist have been assassinated in 2022.
In a 90% Catholic country, with a strong Guarani influence (an official Amerindian language, like Spanish), the two main rivals come together on societal issues, both opposed to marriage for all and abortion.
"We are a conservative society, it is deeply rooted in us (...) and it makes us cautious in the face of major changes in society", assumes to AFP Mr. Peña, who presents himself as the guarantor of traditions and of the family, faced with a "dehumanized" world.
Light years away from the concerns of the Paraguayans, the election could also have a marginal geopolitical impact.
If elected, Mr. Alegre has indeed indicated that he would "analyze" the future of Asuncion's relations with Taipei, in the name of the higher commercial interest of a partnership with China. Paraguay is one of 13 states in the world - the only one in South America - that officially recognizes Taiwan.
Mr. Peña, for his part, told AFP that he would transfer - again - the Paraguayan embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. President Cartes had already done so in 2018, before his successor Mario Abdo Benitez reconsidered the transfer a few months later.
Nearly 4.8 million voters designate president, vice-president, deputies, senators, and 17 provincial governors. The results should be known about 3 hours after the polls close at 8:00 p.m. GMT.
04/30/2023 18:26:52 - Asuncion (AFP) - © 2023 AFP
