After eight years of socialist government, the Portuguese Parliament is swinging to the right, buoyed by the narrow victory of the center-right opposition and the confirmed surge of the far right, during the legislative elections held on Sunday March 10.
While only the four seats in foreign constituencies had not yet been allocated, the Democratic Alliance (AD) led by Luis Montenegro, 51, had won 29.49% of the votes and 79 deputies out of a total of 230. The Socialist Party (PS), which obtained an absolute majority in 2022 with a score of 41.4%, now comes in second place with 28.66% of the votes and 77 seats. This result therefore does not allow the winner to form an absolute majority of at least 116 elected officials alone, nor even in coalition with a small liberal party that came in fourth place with 5% of the votes and eight seats.
Luis Montenegro, the leader of the conservative coalition made up of his Social Democratic Party (PSD), the right-wing Democratic and Social Center and People's Party, and a small monarchist party, still claimed a victory " essential", saying he wants to govern with a "relative majority" in Parliament and reaffirming his refusal to lead the country with the support of the far right.
“I committed to it during the electoral campaign and of course I will keep my word,” he assured.
Four times more seats for the far-right party
The populist Chega (Enough) party led by André Ventura, 41, more than doubled its score with 18% of the vote (compared to 7.2% during the previous legislative elections in January 2022). In terms of number of seats, the anti-system formation founded in 2019 quadrupled its representation from 12 to 48 deputies, thus strengthening its rank as the third political force in the country, following an election also marked by high participation. increase, and caused by the resignation of the outgoing Prime Minister, Antonio Costa, linked to a corruption scandal, who was not seeking a new mandate.
“Chega asked to become the centerpiece of the political system and achieved this objective,” welcomed Mr. Ventura after welcoming “an absolutely historic result” and saying he was “available” to “give a stable government to the Portugal” within “a strong majority on the right”.
This new breakthrough for the far right comes as Portugal next month commemorates the 50th anniversary of the Carnation Revolution, which ended the fascist dictatorship and thirteen years of colonial wars. In his meteoric rise, this law professor and fervent Catholic, who became known as a polemicist on television sets devoted to football, was driven by a speech against corruption, immigration and minorities. Beyond the suspicions which caused the resignation of Antonio Costa, Mr. Ventura also insisted during the campaign on the increase in immigration to Portugal, which saw its foreign population double in the space of five years.
“Dialogue” and “responsibilities”
After Mr Costa's departure, the PS regrouped around Pedro Nuno Santos, a 46-year-old former minister from its left wing. “Despite the minimal difference between us and the AD, (…) we did not win the elections and we will go into opposition,” he admitted. More ambiguously, he said that his party would not obstruct the formation of a center-right minority government, but left the threat of voting against his next budget.
Despite the consolidation of public finances, growth above the European average and unemployment at its lowest, the record of the outgoing socialist government was tarnished by inflation, dysfunctions in hospitals and schools, then by a major crisis housing.
During the campaign, the leader of the center-right opposition Luis Montenegro – a long-time deputy then head of the parliamentary group when his party was in power (2011-2015) – promised to reduce taxes in order to boost growth, while saying they want to improve public services.
“We are ready to start governing” and “change policies,” he said during a speech to activists in a hotel in Lisbon. “It is with a high sense of responsibility that I will convey to the President of the Republic our desire to govern,” he added. “The implementation of our policy will have to go through dialogue,” added the winner of these elections, calling on “the parties to assume their responsibilities”, starting with the socialists who have joined the opposition.
