For the first time since the return to democracy in 1999, Nigeria could experience a two-round presidential election. Never has an election of this type seemed both so open and so unpredictable in the country. Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari, 80, is completing his second term and will not stand for re-election, under the Constitution.
Under his administration, the West African giant sank into a serious economic crisis. Unilateral closure of its borders between August 2019 and December 2020, restriction of imports of several basic food products: the last few years have been marked by several controversial measures. At the end of October 2022, the central bank decided, without consultation, to replace all of the country's banknotes with new denominations. A decision that caused a huge shortage of cash.
The record on the security front is no better. In northeastern Nigeria, the Islamic State in West Africa (EIAO) has taken over the historic branch of Boko Haram, some groups of which are still active. In the Southeast, armed separatists destroyed dozens of public buildings, polling stations or police stations, and killed many members of the security forces. Meanwhile, armed groups dubbed "bandits" are terrorizing the North West, which has been hit by an explosion of kidnappings for ransom in the past two years.
Youth voting scrutinized
Saturday, February 25, 94 million voters are called to the polls in nearly 180,000 polling stations, to elect Muhammadu Buhari's successor. The vote of young people will be particularly scrutinized, the under 35s representing 39% of those registered on the lists in a country where 65% of the population is under 25 years old.
Four candidates stand out out of the eighteen in the running, on a chessboard dominated by "sponsorship", consisting for politicians of choosing docile heirs, and by money, which is used in particular to buy the votes of the voters most vulnerable, in a country where 112 million people – more than half of the population – live on less than 1.90 dollars a day (1.80 euros).
The two main candidates have in common to be wealthy septuagenarians. Party of the outgoing majority, the Congress of Progressives (APC) is represented by Bola Tinubu, a 70-year-old former governor of Lagos and considered "the kingmaker" of Nigerian politics. Yoruba, Muslim, originally from the south of the country, he relies on the immense network he has woven during his years at the head of the megalopolis of more than 20 million inhabitants.
Facing him, Atiku Abubakar, a 76-year-old Hausa Muslim from northern Nigeria, is running for the sixth time in a presidential election under the colors of the People's Democratic Party (PDP), the main opposition party. Except that, by winning at the end of his party's primary despite a regulation which stipulated that a candidate from the south of the country had to be chosen, he caused two notable defections: on the one hand, Rabiu Kwankwaso, a former governor of the Muslim state of Kano - Nigeria's second most populous state - broke ranks to join the New Nigeria People's Party (NNPP). On the other, Peter Obi, a former governor of Anambra State in southeastern Nigeria, has distanced himself to run for the Labor Party (LP).
Two underdogs
Since then, these two "outsiders" have given campaign headliners a hard time. Particularly Peter Obi, who has established himself as the third man in this presidential election and as the herald of youth. “The mere fact that he is still being talked about on the eve of the election is quite exceptional,” confirms Afolabi Adekaiyaoja, analyst for the Center for Democracy and Development (CDD) in Abuja. The LP candidate was able to capitalize on the increasingly politicized urban youth's thirst for change. Movement
The fragmentation of the electorate along community and religious lines may also work in favor of Peter Obi. The only Christian candidate, he can also count in the south-east of Nigeria on the votes of the moderate Ibos – his ethnic group – in need of representation. "Many Nigerians feel that in order to survive in this country, they have to have someone from the same ethnic and religious group as them in power," laments the CDD analyst, who believes that "this dynamic intensified under the Buhari administration".
However, Peter Obi's chances of victory could well be undermined by abstention, which is still very high in Nigeria. This had broken records in the 2019 election, in which only a third of voters took part. Insecurity but also the serious shortage of cash currently affecting the country could dissuade more than one from going to the polls. However, to win this election in the first round, a candidate must obtain the majority of the votes and obtain 25% of the votes in two thirds of the 36 States of the country, while ensuring a victory in the capital, Abuja.
The results are expected early next week and the particularly uncertain outcome of the election raises fears of post-election violence. "It is vital for Nigeria that the process be conducted and designed in a safe, fair and credible manner," the United States, Australia, Norway, Japan, Canada and the United Kingdom said in a joint statement. United. On Twitter, the President, Muhammadu Buhari, meanwhile, urged Nigerians to keep the country "safe, united and peaceful".
