Study examines causes: Is the danger of Long Covid overestimated?

Corona is not a cold.

Study examines causes: Is the danger of Long Covid overestimated?

Corona is not a cold. Above all, possible long-term consequences should not be underestimated, experts warn again and again. Any infection carries a potential risk of Long Covid. But is the fear of it perhaps greater than the actual danger?

Tiredness, exhaustion, shortness of breath, memory problems, sleep disorders, headaches and muscle pain - these are just some of the symptoms that can occur after a corona infection. If the symptoms last for several weeks or even months, it is referred to as Long Covid or Post Covid. The clinical picture has hardly been researched so far. Nevertheless, Federal Health Minister Karl Lauterbach is convinced that the problems associated with Long Covid are generally underestimated. But how big is the risk really?

Every corona infection carries the risk of long covid, Lauterbach recently warned on Twitter. "If you have survived an infection well, unfortunately that is no guarantee that it will be the case again the next time," says Jördis Frommhold, chief physician at the Median Clinic in Heiligendamm, the "Süddeutsche Zeitung". The Long Covid expert reports on a patient who easily put away her first corona infection after three vaccinations. "But then she got infected again and developed Long Covid from top to bottom," says Frommhold.

A current analysis by Techniker Krankenkasse (TK) is also worrying. According to this, almost one percent of their employed insured persons, in whom a corona infection was detected by means of a PCR in 2020, were on sick leave in 2021 with the diagnosis Long Covid. On average, they were unable to work for 105 days. For comparison: On average, every TK-insured employee was generally only 14.6 days unfit for work last year.

According to the analysis, the number of people affected by long-Covid in the pandemic seems relatively low at one percent, said TK boss Jens Baas. "But these are only the patients who have also been on sick leave with this specific diagnosis - we also assume that there is a high number of unreported cases." There is no clear diagnosis. This is due to the fact that the definition of the long-term consequences is unclear and the symptoms are so diverse. Many records are based on self-reports by those affected.

However, experts seem to agree: "The more often you get the virus, the more likely you are to have bad luck and end up with Long Covid - the thing that none of us want because it can be so serious," warns David Nabarro, Covid expert at the World Health Organization WHO. However, this has little to do with "bad luck", according to a new study by the Central Institute for Statutory Health Insurance Physicians (ZI). According to the study, the majority of patients with long-Covid symptoms before the virus infection were already receiving medical treatment for previous illnesses, as reported by the “Bild” newspaper, citing the data analysis by the ZI. According to this, 96 percent of patients with Long Covid previously suffered from respiratory diseases or overweight, for example.

"These data show that long-Covid patients have pre-existing conditions such as respiratory diseases, high blood pressure, obesity and mental illnesses more frequently than the general population," said Dominik von Stillfried, CEO of the newspaper. According to the report, the ZI registered around 880,000 cases of Long Covid in the statutory health insurance sector in 2021. Two thirds of the patients were free of symptoms after a quarter at the latest - one percent of the cases were complex and lengthy.

"The case of the young woman who has never had anything and then suffers from massive long-Covid complications after infection exists - but only very, very rarely," says Stillfried. "You have to counter the impression that everyone has to reckon with post-Covid and severe effects after Covid - the data does not show that."

So, isn't everything so bad? If the results of the study are confirmed, it means at least that the great concern about long and post-Covid can be alleviated somewhat, at least among healthy groups of people. According to experts such as the Essen neurologist Christoph Kleinschnitz, it is quite possible that a psychological component also plays a role and that the fear of Long Covid promotes its development. But it is also clear that one way or another, the performance of the people affected is often impaired for a long time.

This is not only a problem for those affected, but also for the healthcare system and society as a whole, said Health Minister Lauterbach "Zeit Online". "We don't even begin to have the capacity to deal with the many cases," said the SPD politician. "There are not enough specialized doctors, not enough treatment places, we don't have any medication yet. Something is really coming our way here."

The good news: The risk of Long Covid after vaccination and infection with Omicron appears to be lower - by around half compared to Delta. This applies to all age groups and at any distance from vaccination, reports a team from King's College London over 7,000 long-Covid patients in the journal "Lancet". A study from the USA among 2,560 healthcare workers also found that the risk of long Covid was 48 percent in the first wave and has now fallen to 17 percent.