The US Congress has so far passed the aid for Ukraine with a large majority. That could change in two weeks after the election. One Republican is already blustering about a "pro-Putin wing" in her own party.
Winter is coming. Russia bombs Ukraine's energy infrastructure. The Ukrainian army is currently pushing back the Russian armed forces, also thanks to the help of the NATO countries, especially the USA. If their support were to collapse, Ukraine would hardly be able to prevent a Russian occupation. That's also what matters on November 8th, when the Americans re-elect large parts of their Congress. Majorities and power relations will shift, that much is certain. The question is: how exactly? Because it could depend on how the war in Ukraine will continue.
So far, the Democrats have the majority in both chambers of Congress. The poll results suggest that soon the Republicans should at least control the House of Representatives. The Republican party leadership could take advantage of this; the crux of the matter is government funding. The President presents a budget proposal that must be approved by Congress. Parliament must also agree to an increase in the debt limit. The Republicans can block here if things don't go according to their ideas.
For President Joe Biden and the Democrats, that would mean potentially having to make painful concessions to the opposition if money is to continue flowing at a similar rate. The consequence for the other NATO countries would be: either they would have to financially step into the breach despite the energy crisis, inflation and potential recession - or explain to Ukraine why solidarity is now reaching its limit.
So far, Congress has pledged more than $60 billion in aid to Ukraine, mostly with clear, cross-party majorities. The United States had not pumped so much money into an armed conflict since the Vietnam War. At the same time, inflation remains high for the population and wage developments are lagging behind.
Kevin McCarthy, Republican faction leader in the House of Representatives, recently said that Ukraine "should not be given a blank check". McCarthy is also designated future majority leader. "People are going to be in a recession," he said. "Ukraine is important, but it can't be the only thing they (the Democrats) are doing." He also mentioned the situation on the southern border with Mexico, where the number of migrants outside the official crossing points is heading for a new record.
It is not certain that the war will actually push the United States into recession. In September, the OECD downgraded its economic forecast for the USA to 1.5 percent this year. But she also sees minimal growth of 0.5 percent for the coming year. The International Monetary Fund is currently assuming 1 percent. The World Bank of even more.
The already harsh campaign tone has become even sharper since McCarthy's testimony. In addition to the expected public outrage from Democrats, there is also criticism from within their own party. Republican MP Liz Cheney, for example, who was pushed out of the parliamentary group leadership last year due to a lack of loyalty to Donald Trump and was ostracized by parts of the party, described McCarthy as the leader of a "pro-Putin wing" of the Republicans. By that she means the isolationists, which tend to include former President Donald Trump. At the beginning of the invasion, he praised Russian President Vladimir Putin as a "genius" and "very intelligent" after Moscow recognized two Ukrainian regions as independent and invaded there.
Cheney even warned against giving primary responsibility to McCarthy with a majority in the House of Representatives. "The faction leader comes directly behind the president," she explained. "Whenever he had the choice between doing the right thing or following his own political interests, he chose his personal goals." Cheney is one of Trump's best-known internal party competitors and is being traded as a possible future presidential candidate. She has made a name for herself with her party-internal opposition to Trump, but she will lose her seat in parliament. She was defeated in the primary by rival Harriet Hageman, who is supported by Trump.
In two weeks, all 435 deputies and 34 out of 100 senators will be re-elected for the congress. While the election in the House of Representatives appears to be all but settled, there is a multitude of neck-and-neck races in the Senate. Trump, who is extremely critical of war involvement, supports more than 200 Republicans who are running for election with similar content. Many of them have at least a good chance of winning a mandate. In recent years, pollsters have often been way off the mark with their numbers. The Republicans often ended up getting a larger share of the vote than forecast.
The looming conflict over future Ukraine aid is also internal to the Republicans. McCarthy is a declared ally of Trump and is therefore at odds with Republican Senate faction leader Mitch McConnell. After his party colleague's blank check testimony, McConnell distanced himself from McCarthy and assured that the Senate Republican faction would ensure that Ukraine received the necessary weapons on time. He even called on Biden's government to expand the aid.
McConnell has openly opposed Trump and his party wing since the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021. He is one of the older generation of Republicans who generally advocate free trade and, if necessary, military force to advance US interests around the world. You and the Democrats may well have to contend with the notions of a strong isolationist wing in the Republicans for years to come. Like the Democrats, he presents himself as the social conscience of US society, but he should ask the question: Why are we spending money on the war in Europe if we can't even deal with the problems in our own country?
(This article was first published on Monday, October 24, 2022.)
