One year before the European elections, the mood of Europeans is mixed, according to the barometer published by the European Parliament. The elections that will take place from June 6 to 9, 2024 seem to generate some interest with more than half of those polled (26,376 individuals aged 15 and over, from March 2 to 26, 2023): 56% say they are interested , compared to 50% in 2018 one year from the 2019 Europeans. The participation rate had been better in 2019 (50.6% compared to 42.6% in 2014). The phenomenon of vote attrition since 1979, the year of the highest participation (62%), had thus been stopped. The European barometer seems to indicate that participation will go up. If the election were held next week, nearly two-thirds of those polled would "probably" turn out to vote.
After five terrible years, plagued by the pandemic of the century and the war in Ukraine and its consequences on inflation, the impact of the European Union on the lives of Europeans, whether good or bad, is now clearly felt by 71% of respondents. But one thing should worry European leaders: interest is far from equal across the 27. It is strongest in the Netherlands, Ireland, Germany, Sweden, Finland and Malta. Interest is growing strongly in Latvia (18 points), Italy and Poland (11 points), Belgium and Greece (10 points). Bad news for Emmanuel Macron: in France, interest in the European elections is among the lowest with the Czech Republic and Slovakia bringing up the rear.
The whole study also illustrates this lesser French appetite for themes that interest Europeans. Since February 22, 2022, the EU has been mobilizing like never before to help Ukraine resist the Russian invasion. It has invested nearly 67 billion in various aids (military, support for refugees and macro-financial assistance). This unique action in the history of the EU is supported by 69% of respondents who say they are satisfied with its actions in this area. The survey does not illustrate the "war fatigue" relied upon by overt or covert pro-Putin forces.
The strongest support is recorded in Sweden (97%) and Finland (96%), two countries which, following Russian aggression, decided to join NATO. It is also very strong in the Netherlands and Portugal (95%) and in Denmark (91%), a country which decided, by referendum, to join the EU's security and defense policy. had been sidelined since joining. France has a 77% satisfaction rate, just above the European average (76%).
Despite its so-called "anti-war" stance and its refusal to supply arms to Ukraine, Hungary still shows support, at 64%, for EU action in Ukraine. It is also not the least supportive country: Austria (61%), a neutral country, the Czech Republic (58%), Bulgaria (54%), Greece (51%) and Slovakia (51%) bring up the rear.
On the other hand, European or national measures to fight price inflation generate discontent. At European level, dissatisfaction is 57% against 32% satisfied. French respondents are even less satisfied with European measures: 66% dissatisfied compared to 11% satisfied.
The Borne government is not immune to criticism despite much lower inflation than our neighbors: 74% dissatisfied against 22% satisfied. European citizens don't compare themselves to their neighbours, they compare what they have left in their wallet at the end of the month with their own previous situation… In any case, the bad mood on prices does not negatively affect support to Ukraine.
More worryingly for the EU, opinion is very divided on protective measures for the environment. However, the Green Pact (or "Green deal" in English) has been the red thread of the legislature which ends in a year. Of the eight themes tested, the Green Pact only comes in 7th position in the satisfaction index and things are quite mixed: 47% are satisfied against 43% who are not. In France, the proportion is even more disappointing for institutions: 31% satisfied against 50% who are not.
The failure of Europeans to agree on a robust migration policy is expressed in the European Barometer: 50% dissatisfied versus 43% satisfied. In France, there too, it is worse: 54% dissatisfaction against 30% satisfaction. The clouds that are gathering over the heads of Europeans with the mounting perils do not prevent them from maintaining, despite everything, optimism for the future of Europe (64%, up 7 points since the fall 2022).
More surprisingly, in this survey, the effect of Qatargate – the corruption scandal that affected some MEPs – does not appear. In any case, it is not measurable at this stage. Maybe the citizens have understood its limited impact (a few bad apples without weight on the decision), or they have forgotten. Perhaps they do not attach major importance to European parliamentary life.
Whatever the explanation, the fact remains that when respondents are asked about the image of the European Parliament, 43% answer "neutral", 37% answer "positive", and 19% answer "negative". Fairly stable curves study after study. In France, the results are more marked: negative opinions weigh 30%, positive opinions 22% and neutral opinions 46%.
In the barometer of the Konrad-Adenauer Foundation, recently published by Le Point, the polls show a surge in the conservative or nationalist vote, but no major upheavals in the balance of the European Parliament.
