globalization, as witnessed since the fall of the Iron curtain, at the latest, with the Corona pandemic is over and there is nothing to suggest that world trade and the international division of labour to grow for the foreseeable future, again as you once did. What to watch for trading researchers in fact, since the 2008 financial crisis, have underlined the Economists of the Bayern LB and the consulting firm Prognos again. They argue for a rethink of the "business model" of export-heavy German economy.
Niklas wanted professions
editor in the economy.F. A. Z.
Acute Problem of the disturbed supply and value chains in the Corona of a crisis, the researchers write in a paper that has been submitted to the F. A., for example.Although the Ifo Institute announced on Thursday sharply improved export expectations of the German industry: on The monthly survey of 2,300 companies, based Index climbed in June from minus 26.7 points to minus 2.3 points.
For the Economists of Bayern LB and prognosis, however, remains an open question whether the disruption of Trade are only temporary. Added to this is the conflict, especially between America and China. But there are deeper - lying causes of this paragraph, direct investment, and interdependence on intermediate goods is stagnating since the financial crisis, or even shrink – and only in terms of services trade and data flows of an ongoing dynamics of Globalization find leave, their volumes are comparatively tiny.
So, the change from a capital - intensive industry prefer to service companies with a lesser demand for machines and equipment, not only in the West but also increasingly in the far East. "A key reason why we will not return to Corona to the globalization of the 2000s, China", says Jürgen Michels, chief economist at the Bayern LB. A phenomenon such as the emerging China is not going to meet again.
this is Also why German companies should focus much more strongly on those countries in which population and Per capita growth in income particularly strong. Prognos calculations showed that India's economic performance is expected to grow by 2030, an average of almost 6 per cent in the year. This corresponds to a total of 2.2 trillion euros and thus almost the whole of the French economy. Also, Iraq and the Philippines, the Economists predict a growth potential of 5 to 6 percent. The Top 5 complete Vietnam and Egypt. It Indonesia and Nigeria.
it was Clear, however: Even in the case of development of new markets, the time rich export growth is likely to be temporary. Indonesia, for instance, is already one of around 265 million people. However, despite the anticipated upturn in the local economy that makes power the prognosis is that in 2040, only 10 percent of the Chinese. "The foreign business of the German companies in the future, particularly in dynamic markets () and the structure of noticeably small-scale are likely to than in the past," conclude the researchers. They are convinced that Germany's "business model" will change – and must.Updated Date: 26 June 2020, 12:20