Historical GDP: First balance-sheet of a century of crisis

Since today, Thursday, is the first time in black and white how much the Corona-crisis has hit the German economy. The quick estimate of the statisticians of Wi

Historical GDP: First balance-sheet of a century of crisis

Since today, Thursday, is the first time in black and white how much the Corona-crisis has hit the German economy. The quick estimate of the statisticians of Wiesbaden to a conclusion: much harder than initially expected. Minus 10.1 percent, beating, therefore, to beech, however, the former seems to be the negative record from the financial crisis of minus 4.7 per cent within the quarter period of comparatively harmless.

Niklas wanted professions

editor in the economy.

F. A. Z.

The main reason of restrictions is in the middle of March imposed by Corona. As we know, you have covered a lot of the public and economic life abruptly still – Restaurants and cafes were closed, the industry drove production, Office operations worked, at most, with a minimal cast. The contributions of all sectors of the economy to the gross domestic product (GDP) fell within the shortest possible time. In the end of March concluded the first quarter of this had led to a decline in added value by 2 percent.

The reported Figures for the second quarter are much more serious, since the height of the Corona-limitations in the review in the first half of April locate. The so-called real-time economic indicators, so with a few days delay data collected on the economic activity shows that the Commerzbank economists have recently become increasingly used by the Kiel Institute for the world economy or the people.

the Smartphone data and laser scanners, as determined passers-by frequency in German inner cities was, for example, in the first three weeks of April to 70 to 90 percent below the pre-crisis level. With the Opening of smaller stores on 20. April, it then went up again, although "normal" values were only reached again in the third quarter of the month of June.

The not aggravated the situation twice

The Lockdown alone, however, declared that the GDP decreased more than the first calculations in view had made. The economic policy Council of economic experts in its Corona-special report from the end of March, on the basis of the experience from China, correctly anticipated a minimum of five weeks of continuous decommissioning of the economy.

This resulted in the base scenario, the "economy" to a GDP forecast of minus 4.5 percent in the second quarter. But the a fell on the 20. April, than five weeks of rigid Lockdown in Germany ended, not on a moment's notice, all of the Corona-restrictions – on the contrary, only a part of the business could re-open, while economic sectors such as the concert industry is still on the ground.

Updated Date: 30 July 2020, 08:20

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