The liquefied gas deal with the United Arab Emirates is in place. For Chancellor Scholz, this is a further step towards securing Germany's energy supply in the coming years. The price may be controversial arms shipments.
German arms exports to Saudi Arabia have largely stopped since 2018. On the one hand because of the country's involvement in the Yemen war, on the other hand because of the murder of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi Consulate General in Istanbul. Exceptions were only possible within the framework of European joint projects.
A few weeks ago, however, the traffic light coalition gave the green light for the delivery of equipment and ammunition to Saudi Arabia for the first time. An exceptional regulation, it is said, that enables European armaments cooperation. Actually, arms exports of any kind to Saudi Arabia were always a no-go for the Greens. For Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Economics Minister Robert Habeck, it is said to have been a difficult compromise that was also hotly debated by the Greens. SPD Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht had previously made a keynote speech in favor of softer rules on German arms exports. And Chancellor Olaf Scholz also spoke out in favor of more flexibility in arms deals.
Just a few days earlier, Scholz had initiated new energy partnerships on the Arabian Peninsula. He wants to cooperate with Saudi Arabia in particular on the subject of hydrogen. "Today we import fossil resources from Saudi Arabia," Scholz said after meeting Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. "For the future, it will be important that we create large-scale opportunities to use hydrogen in Germany, which is produced here and in other places."
What price does Germany have to pay for this cooperation? Critics fear that German weapons could be traded for Arab energy. Peace researcher Max Mutschler therefore warns against further exceptions. "There is a risk that further cooperation will come about that we don't know about yet," says Mutschler, who keeps an eye on German arms exports for the peace research institute BICC.
Because even with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which is involved on the side of Saudi Arabia in the Yemen war, there are signs of a partnership that could be broken down into the formula "weapons against gas". "At least that's what Saudi Arabia, but also the United Arab Emirates, would like to see," Middle East and energy expert Dawud Ansari said in the ntv podcast "Wirtschaft Welt
For him, a stronger economic connection with the United Arab Emirates means that Germany has to accept a lot more than it actually wants when it comes to weapons and human rights. Because one thing is clear: "Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates would like to further expand their armaments industry and thus also increase their armaments imports."
The background is a new self-confidence in the Arab world. Countries like Saudi Arabia and the Emirates have large energy reserves. The energy shortage caused by the Ukraine war and the resulting sanctions against Russia has put countries rich in natural resources in a good negotiating position.
Symbolic of this is the production cuts by the OPEC countries and their allies - including Russia. Despite requests from US President Joe Biden, the cartel has decided to make less oil available to the world market. Western interests no longer play a central role for the Arab states. Eckart Woertz, head of the GIGA Institute for Middle East Studies in Hamburg, even speaks of a "slap in the face for the West".
Countries like the United Arab Emirates can currently simply choose their customers. And because Germany primarily wants to compensate for short-term energy bottlenecks, countries like China with long-term interests are more attractive.
In any case, human rights activists are already warning of new dependencies with problematic partners. With the end of the ceasefire in the Yemen war, they fear further massive suffering for the affected population. And if further arms exports go to the warring parties in the future - even if this happens in joint projects - it could become a major conflict within the traffic light parties.
