Donald Trump would win the election again today. One year after its victory, the President maintains almost intact the support of its bases. Installed in exceptionality, far from abandoning the polarizing strategy that gave the White House, has deepened the social fracture to keep his vote active.
The result is devastating. 70% consider, according to a survey by the Washington Post, that the US lives a division similar to that generated by the Vietnam war. And the others believe that their administration is "dysfunctional." All this results in an estimation of below 40%, the worst of a president at this point in mandate.
But this wear does not imply that it has lost the favor of the bases. Most of the surveys are drawn up, according to Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Policy on general population, but for electoral purposes, only registered voters weigh. And at that point, Trump keeps untouched. Alone, surrounded by enemies, but powerful.
"He has a 40% loyal electorate." It is an organized minority that hates the general media and acts as an echo of Trump's proclamations of ideological reaffirmation, details Professor Andrew Lakoff of the University of Southern California.
This rocky background has been extremely solid in the nine months of mandate. This has helped a booming economy and an unemployment rate of 4.1%, the lowest since 2000. That trick is a springboard to Trump's great ambition: to come back again. "Entering the White House was the hard thing." If the economy goes well, it will be very difficult to defeat him in 2020, "predicts Sabato."
"Unfortunately," says Lakoff, "he has a chance of re-election." The Electoral college makes it possible to win with a minority of the vote. "And if he's able to keep his strength in the Midwest and Florida, he can do it." Trump, for now, is still winning.