An analysis shows that the SPD owes its election victory in Lower Saxony to Stephan Weil. Unlike his challenger Althusmann, the voters trust the head of government to lead in times of crisis. The AfD benefits from its image as a reminder.
According to a research analysis, the SPD in Lower Saxony owes its success in the state elections to its prime minister. "The number one success factor for the SPD is Stephan Weil," writes the research group Wahlen. "With values just below the Prime Minister's top class, the incumbent convinces with his balance sheet (good work: 71 percent) and high reputation." On the 5/-5 scale, Weil with 2.1 is clearly ahead of CDU challenger Bernd Althusmann with 1.2.
"Only 26 percent want Althusmann as head of government, but 55 percent want Weil, who, according to those surveyed, is most likely to lead the country through the uncertain times," according to the analysis. Supported by a lot of encouragement from the older generation, the SPD's success is based on good government work, a good reputation locally and a superior top candidate. On the other hand, there was hardly any tailwind from the federal government. Criticism of the traffic light coalition in the federal government hit the FDP in particular, which collapsed when viewed as a federal party (minus 0.2).
When the economy is clouded over and personal worries about the future are rarely great, the SPD enjoys more confidence in the country on social and economic issues than the CDU, "which - in addition to only having a moderate standing locally - again has no tailwind in federal politics". The Greens scored well on the top issue of energy policy, and there was also a relatively high level of approval for a red-green coalition.
According to the survey, the Lower Saxony CDU has deficits in content: "In an environment in which the economic situation and future preparations are viewed more skeptically than in 2017, the CDU has lost competence in these policy areas." The SPD is largely stable and enjoys the most trust here, as it does when it comes to mitigating rising costs, education, infrastructure and social justice. The Greens are strong when it comes to energy policy. "As is so often the case, the FDP and AfD remain extremely weak when it comes to party competencies."
"The AfD benefits from the multiple crisis situation almost without doing anything on its own," the research group continues. She was chosen for 20 percent of all respondents because of her political demands, but for 71 percent as a reminder, with dissatisfaction directed in particular at politicians and those acting in the federal government. For 66 percent of those surveyed, the AfD also used the Ukraine crisis and the high prices for energy, for example.
The basis for the SPD's success was once again laid by the older generation: among people over 60, the SPD managed a strong 42 percent (unchanged), among those under 30 it only came to 22 percent (minus 9). However, the CDU lost even more among the under-30s, reaching 19 percent (minus 11). The Greens achieved 20 percent here (plus 7). When looking at the next state government, according to the analysis, Lower Saxony prefers a red-green coalition. 42 percent think this is good. 33 percent advocate red-black and 25 percent black-green. The FDP no longer plays a role here.
