How is the Ukrainian army doing? According to the Einsatzkommando Süd, a Russian regiment is refusing to serve. Meanwhile, the British Ministry of Defense has commented on the Kremlin's war aims.
According to Ukrainian sources, Russian soldiers have apparently refused to serve in southern Ukraine. As the Task Force South of the Ukrainian Army reports, the Russian 127th Regiment of the 1st Army Corps refused to carry out its duties. The reason for this is said to be a lack of support and poor conditions. Among other things, there was a lack of water. According to the Ukrainian military, disciplinary measures were taken against the soldiers.
The 127th Regiment was formed by Russian forces in the self-proclaimed "People's Republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk along with four other regiments in early April, according to the Institute for The Study of War. One of these surrendered on the very first day of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. "It is likely that the Russian armed forces will reinforce their frontline positions with inexperienced and forcibly mobilized elements who lack the will to fight," the institute said.
The British Ministry of Defense reported on Sunday that the Russian armed forces appeared to be suffering from morale and discipline problems. In addition to combat fatigue and the high losses, problems with pay are probably one of the main criticisms of the Russian soldiers. "Several problems have most likely arisen in Ukraine because significant combat bonuses have not been paid."
In this Monday's briefing, the British Ministry of Defense assumes that Russia's most important goal in Ukraine appears to remain the conquest of the Donbass. The main axes of the Russian advance were at Avdiivka north of the city of Donetsk and around the city of Bakhmut further north. However, Russian forces are said to have advanced only about a kilometer per week in the direction of Bakhmut.
"The political objective of the Donbass operation almost certainly remains to secure the entire Donetsk region, which would allow the Kremlin to announce the 'liberation' of Donbass," London said. However, it is very unlikely that the armed forces will achieve this goal. This would further complicate Russia's plans to hold referendums on the occupied territories' entry into the Russian Federation.
The Institute for the Study of War reports "demonstrable progress" by the Ukrainian army in the south and east. Ukrainian forces advanced along several axes in the western Kherson region and would have taken control of areas across the Siversky Donets River. "The pace of the counteroffensive is likely to change dramatically from day to day," it said. Ukrainian forces aimed to "deprive the Russians of necessary supplies, disrupt their command and control structures and weaken their morale, even as counter-offensive ground attacks continue". However, according to the Institute, the Russians would occasionally counterattack and regain lost ground, and of course they would likely launch heavy artillery and air strikes against liberated settlements and advancing Ukrainian troops.
