In China's politics, old cliques count for more than professional qualifications. Hardly any other cadres of the CP benefited from this unwritten law as much as the designated Prime Minister Li Qiang. This is not good news for the world.
First of all: Li Qiang is a bright mind. China's incoming prime minister has a degree in industrial engineering and has steadily worked his way up the party hierarchy. This includes intelligence and enough instinct to avoid political mistakes. What he lacks, however, is in-depth economics knowledge. It is true that Li has already taken a number of courses in global economics at the Central Party School. But he lacks the deep understanding of global relationships that his predecessor Li Keqiang brought with him as a doctor of economics.
As an indicator, the Chinese stock markets reacted to the reshuffle of the Communist Party's (KP) power circle with drastic price falls. However, a lack of economic understanding on the part of the leadership elite is not solely responsible for this. Instead, the shock lingered that General Secretary Xi Jinping, with the future prime minister, can now think of six members of the Politburo's Standing Committee at his side, who are described as loyalists.
Such a constellation is dangerous in a regime in which dissent at the highest level of the party is punished with serious allegations of corruption. Whether out of fear of such consequences or out of gratitude for the political advancement - the Loyalists are more likely to come to terms with automated consent than to question the competence of their foster father.
But if everyone only tells the ruler what he wants to hear, the likelihood of wrong decisions increases. In view of China's importance for the global economy, peace or the fight against climate change, the consequences of such wrong decisions have long affected the whole world. That's why Li Qiang's personality is causing headaches for many observers.
The designated prime minister and the party leader for life have become very close in the past. A nearly 20-year-old photo shows Li Qiang and Xi Jinping intimately standing side by side in front of the cliffs of Nanji Island. The island is off the coast of the east Chinese province of Zhejiang, where the two politicians covered some parts of their careers together.
When Xi was in charge of the party's fortunes in Zhejiang, Li initially represented the CCP's interests in its economic center of Wenzhou. Later, Li held the post of general secretary of the provincial-level Party committee for many years. But long after Xi had moved on to Shanghai to prepare for his rise to the top of the state, Li Qiang had to wait a long time.
The powerful organization department of the CP, which maneuvers its cadres from post to post across the country so that they can prove themselves for higher tasks, parked the now 63-year-old on the spot. Li's rapid rise, which culminated last Sunday with his appointment as number two on the Politburo's Standing Committee, only became apparent after Xi Jinping had led the state for years.
With Li's appointment to the party's politburo and party secretary in Shanghai, Xi paved the way for his pupil to join him in 2017. But even these promotions would not have qualified him adequately for the post of head of government, according to the practice that has been in place for decades. Because traditionally it was always one of four deputy prime ministers who were promoted.
However, Li cannot be officially appointed prime minister until next year, when the National People's Congress, the state body, convenes. Officially, party and state are still two different things. In practice, however, the party occupies all state nerve cells.
Since Sunday there has been speculation about the future scope for action of the incoming prime minister. His abbreviated career path without the vice premier station means two things. For one thing, Li Qiang has little experience on the international stage, which is a challenge given China's growing importance in the world.
On the other hand, Li obviously has Xi Jinping to thank for the fact that he will soon be where nobody expected him to be. This also means that he is dependent on the Secretary General. "Li has no particular political record to back him up, so he is acutely aware that he owes his position to Xi. Whatever Xi orders him to do, he will do it," predicts Willy Lam of the Jamestown Foundation in Washington in the British "Guardian".
While the incumbent Prime Minister Li Keqiang could be sure of the backing of his Communist Party Youth League, Li Qiang has no support from any well-known faction in the party's power structure. This significantly reduces the likelihood that he will be able to emancipate himself from Xi Jinping under these circumstances.
Nevertheless, the new Li also brings qualities that Xi needs. He proved that when he rigorously put the megacity of Shanghai under lockdown in the spring. Against all odds, Li kept the city sealed for months. Because of the large number of foreigners in Shanghai, who trumpeted their bad, sometimes dramatic experiences all over the world via the Internet, the pressure on Li was particularly high. But he continued as the head of state apparently instructed: regardless of the losses.
"Li has proven to be a loyal executor of Xi's zero-Covid policy," says political scientist Chen Daoyin, a former professor at Shanghai University of Political Science and Law. However, there are also reports that Li is said to have faltered when it came to the strict implementation of the lockdown. How great the dissent between Beijing and Shanghai really was is speculation. However, whether Li would actually have been considered prime minister if he had vehemently called for a different policy is highly questionable.
During his time in Zhejiang, later in Jiangsu and Shanghai, Li Qiang also earned a reputation as a doer who took up the interests of the middle class. In Zhejiang, he launched an initiative designed to make the country's smaller towns more attractive to entrepreneurs. Such approaches are well received by Xi. He wants to distribute incomes more fairly in China to avoid social unrest. The economic development of small towns seems to be a good idea.
