The PS and the Socialists can rub their hands (a little). They go up the slope. A Cluster 17* poll on voting intentions in the next European elections reveals an increase in their favour. An autonomous PS list led by Raphaël Glucksmann (as in 2019) would gather 9% of the vote, according to this poll carried out in mid-May. If the previous studies had not been published, they placed the PS at a much lower level. “Cluster 17 has seen an increase in voting intentions for the Socialist Party over the past few months. Its electoral potential seems to have almost doubled since the summer of 2022,” says Jean-Yves Dormagen, professor of political science and president of the polling institute.
The study first confirms the results of an Ifop Fiducial poll broadcast in the JDD ten days ago: united under the banner of Nupes, the left would come out on top in the European elections, with 27% of the vote. It would beat by a short head the list of the National Rally (25.5%), and a little more easily that of the presidential majority (23%). The Republicans would come far behind, with 8.5% of the voting intentions, slightly ahead of the list of Éric Zemmour (7%) and that of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (4%).
Manuel Bompard could no doubt use this study to drive the point home. Jean-Luc Mélenchon's right-hand man preaches wherever he goes for a single list of the left, the assurance in his eyes of beating Emmanuel Macron (LFI does not hide: the European ballot is the ideal way to hit a little more strong on the head of state). "What do you offer as an alternative to 35% Nupes?" he asked last week in Le Point, inflating the potential result of the Nupes a little.
Conversely, if it were scattered, the left would leave the RN and the presidential majority (Renaissance, Horizons and MoDem) to boast of good results in the 2024 ballot: the list drawn by Jordan Bardella would in this case come largely in the lead ( 24% of voting intentions), and that of Stéphane Séjourné good second (19.5%). A hole, then would come Manon Aubry and LFI (11%), David Cormand and EELV (11%), Raphaël Glucksmann and the PS (9%), Marion Maréchal and Reconquête! (6.5%) then still behind Fabien Roussel and the PCF (4%).
But the addition of the four left lists (LFI, EELV, PS and PCF) would exceed the result of Nupes (35% on one side, 27% on the other). As Laurent Joffrin analyzed it a few days ago in an editorial published by Le Journal, this is proof that Nupes is not filling up on the left. Part of his electorate prefers to abstain than to vote on the alliance built during the legislative elections of 2022; he is mobilizing again by giving his voice to the independent lists, in the forefront of which that of the PS. This trend seems to confirm a move away from macronism from the moderate left in favor of the PS, but also of EELV.
The distrust of the rebels vis-à-vis the European Union therefore seems to act as a foil. The defenders of an autonomous list of the Socialist Party, even of a socialist list independent of that of the PS, can rub their hands, too. This is the case of Stéphane Le Foll, the mayor of Le Mans and opponent of Olivier Faure, who calls for the constitution of a social democratic list, freed from the influence of LFI, in the European elections.
* Study conducted by Cluster 17 on its own behalf with a sample of 1,760 people aged 18 and over. The sample is made according to the quota method. Interviews conducted May 17-19.
