Driven by greenhouse gas emissions and the El Niño climate phenomenon, the last three months have been the hottest on record worldwide, with February part of a series of nine successive monthly records, according to Copernicus.
In its latest monthly bulletin published on Thursday, the European observatory released a new series of shocking figures: with an air temperature of 13.54°C on average, last month was 1.77°C. C above an average February over the period 1850-1900. This is also 0.12°C warmer than the previous record for a month of February, which dates back to 2016.
Over four days, from February 8 to 11, temperatures were even 2°C higher than in the pre-industrial era – which does not mean that the upper limit of the Paris agreement, which is expressed on average over several decades, has been achieved. Over the past twelve months, the world has experienced a temperature 1.56°C warmer than the average climate in the 19th century, a new record.
Marine life directly threatened
February 2024 thus represents the ninth monthly record in a row broken, insists Copernicus. The meteorological winter in the Northern Hemisphere (December to February) is therefore the warmest in the world, following the three hottest months of autumn and summer.
Remarkable heat was recorded across the world, from North America to Vietnam, Morocco and most of South America. But Europe stood out. The Old Continent experienced exceptional heat this winter with temperatures 3.30°C above normal (1991-2020), and with an even more abnormal situation in central and eastern Europe.
The average temperature of the oceans, which cover 70% of the Earth, reached a new absolute record, all months combined, with 21.06°C recorded in February at the surface of the seas (excluding areas near the poles). This warming directly threatens marine life and can reduce the capacity to absorb our greenhouse gas emissions into the seas, carbon sinks that absorb 90% of excess energy from human activity.
The past months have been affected by the natural climatic phenomenon El Niño, synonymous with warmer temperatures, which, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), reached its peak in December but has yet to result in temperatures above normal until May on dry land.
“We will inevitably face new world records.”
The WMO says there is a chance that La Niña − which, unlike El Niño, lowers global temperatures − will develop "later this year" after neutral conditions (neither the other) between April and June. “2024 was on track to be another very hot year, potentially a record year, but the chances of that happening could decrease if we move very quickly towards a La Niña phenomenon,” explained Carlo Buontempo, director of the service on Copernicus climate change (C3S).
But, in all cases, these cyclical phenomena add to a long-term trend, which does not show any change: warming under the effect of the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, linked essentially the combustion of fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) by humanity.
Unless we manage to “stabilize” these concentrations, “we will inevitably face new world temperature records and their consequences,” warns Carlo Buontempo. Greenhouse gas emissions must fall by 43% by 2030 compared to 2019 to hope to meet the 1.5°C limit set by the Paris agreement, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. climate change (IPCC). These global emissions are also expected to peak by 2025.
But that's not the way to go: according to the latest data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), global energy-related CO2 emissions increased by 1.1% in 2023 to reach a level record. Countries around the world still have one year to raise their international climate commitments, which will be discussed at COP29 in Baku at the end of the year.
