Recognized technician and Scotland coach since 2017, does Gregor Townsend also have some clairvoyant gifts? “This will be, I believe, the most competitive Six Nations Tournament we have ever had. No one is going to slow down in the coming weeks,” prophesied the former Brive opener at the end of January, a few days before the start of the Six Nations Tournament. A month and a half later, it's hard to prove him wrong: at the dawn of the final day, four teams are still dreaming of lifting the trophy.
At the top of the rankings, the Irish can still be overtaken by Scotland if they come out big losers in their duel against Townsend's men, Saturday March 16, in Dublin (5:45 p.m. Paris time). And if the players of the green Erin are defeated, but only narrowly, they would then expose themselves to being overtaken at the wire by France or England, who face each other the same evening (9 p.m.) at the Groupama Stadium in Décines -Charpieu (Rhone).
The beginnings of a Saturday full of twists and turns? Maybe, although it will be difficult to match the scenario of the previous weekend. Launched at full speed towards a second consecutive grand slam, the Irish stumbled in the final moments against England and a drop from opener Marcus Smith (23-22). An unpredictable performance, just like that of the Italians, a few hours earlier. The Azzurri managed to beat the odds to defeat Scotland and score a first victory in Rome in the Tournament since 2013 (31-29).
“It goes quickly, in this tournament, from one day to the next, trends can reverse quickly. We must remain vigilant,” Fabien Galthié confirmed Thursday at a press conference. The Blues coach and his team also experienced their share of reversals and disappointments by conceding a draw against Italy (13-13), after a scathing defeat against Ireland (38-17).
If the digestion of the World Cup may be a reason for this general leveling, the trend is not new. “Every weekend is a big challenge in this competition. The level rises every year, and so much the better for the Six Nations Tournament, so that it lives longer,” considers French pillar Uini Atonio. An opinion shared by his teammate, second row Thibaud Flament. “We have known for several years that there is no longer an easy match in the Tournament. We see this in the scores which are often quite close. »
Some teams have caught up
Of the first twelve matches of the 2024 vintage of the Tournament, seven ended with a gap of four points or less (58%): unheard of since 1985, according to the sports statistics specialist, Opta. The competition then only had five teams. The legitimacy of Italy – a sea serpent since the Tournament transformed into a “Six Nations” in 2000 – is no longer in question this season.
“The teams that were sometimes late became more structured. They are also enriched by the expertise of coaches or former players who come to contribute their knowledge,” also notes Thibaud Flament, interviewed by Le Monde. Like Gonzalo Quesada, having taken his place on the Italian bench after having scoured those of French clubs (Stade français, Racing 92 and Biarritz).
Last of the historic class in the competition, the Squadra Azzurra leaves – for the moment – this unpleasant honor to the Welsh, beaten four times in as many matches. A fine player, Wales coach Warren Gatland appreciated the Italian victory over Scotland, even if it plunged his team to the bottom of the rankings. “It’s a good thing for the Tournament, it creates uncertainty. They will seek to achieve the best ranking in their history in the Tournament. And we don't want to finish last,” added the New Zealander before the duel between the two selections (Saturday, at 3:15 p.m., Paris time).
Leek's “Encouraging defeats” to which the Scots and French were accustomed a few years ago, before returning to regularly play leading roles in the Tournament.
Another symbol of the homogenization of European rugby: the World Rugby ranking – ranking the world nations – is at least as tight as that of the Tournament. From Ireland, second behind South Africa, to Italy, ninth, the six best teams in the Northern Hemisphere all sit at the top of the table.
It now remains to be seen which of them will take advantage of this last day to win the Tournament. Already a visionary once, Gregor Townsend perhaps also had the winning ticket, recalling when giving his favorites that “Ireland and France have been competing for first place in the world for several seasons”.
