The repetition of the general election can be costly very expensive to Pedro Sanchez . The political blockade and the inability to negotiate and reach a settlement of the investiture pass bill to the PSOE, which breaks its uptrend of the last year and gives clear signs of decline, as reflected in the latest poll from ABC/GAD3 , which includes the party of Errejón. The scenario is total blocking, except that the two large national parties agree to form a grand coalition, something unheard of in Spain until now. The PSOE and the PP would block 218 seats.
The political chessboard Spanish suffers a strong jolt and the distribution of seats have major changes, and not only by the irruption of a new party of the left, More Country, Íñigo Errejón . The PSOE would lose two mps with respect to the 28 of April, and she would be left with 121, in a fall that has nothing to do with the expectations that they had the socialists until a few days ago. In fact, Sanchez showed his confidence that the new elections would "strengthen" their majority. But the survey points precisely to the contrary.
The fall of the PSOE is in contrast with the strong rise in the PP , which would of the 66 mps present to add 97, with 21.4 percent of the vote, compared to 16.7 percent of the 28 of April. The popular reduce by half the distance with the socialists in the estimation of the vote and are now 5.8 points below the PSOE, but in April the difference was 12 points.
The rise of the Popular Party nourishes, mainly, of the votes that you lose Citizens . The party of Albert Rivera collapses, going from the 57 seats it won in April to add 32, that is like going back to square one in 2016. Citizens are left on the road in these months of blockade by 4.6 points in estimation of vote, and loses its position as the third national party, a position which retrieves United we Can . The turn of the last hour of Rivera to offer a forbearance to Sanchez to change to accept three conditions has not served to prevent their collapse.
United we Can also go backwards. Is left almost two points of estimation of the vote and lost eight of its 42 deputies present. Are practically you would have got Over the Country , the formation led by Íñigo Errejón, who will be the great novelty in these elections. This party would win nine deputies, with a 5.2 percent of the vote, a significant percentage because it will allow you to have own group in the Congress of Deputies.
Vox holds the type, and just lose a few tenths compared to the previous elections. The formation of Santiago Abascal it would still be the fifth national party, with a 9.6 per cent of votes (10.3 per cent in April), and 21 members, three less than in the previous elections. Vox holds in spite of the profile rather low, which has been in the Congress for these months, and demonstrates that the majority of the voters who ran away from the PP, angered by what they call "derechita coward," do not think to return, at least for the moment.
With these withs, Sanchez would have less possibilities of covenant up to now. For the left, if previously added with United we Can 165 deputies, now would 155, and if you join More Country, despite its rivalry with the Churches, would be as much as 164 seats. The six deputies of the PNV would not be enough to reach the absolute majority, nor if the Party's Regionalist of Cantabria (PRC) to turn back to say "yes" to Sanchez. In total amounting to 171 members.
The abstention of the 15 deputies of ERC would be sufficient, but in between there will be judgment on the challenge to independence, something that may change that position.
The factor ErrejónFor the moment, Errejón is willing to put things very easy for Sanchez to support him. A position that collides with the of Churches, which refuses a compact "for free" , so that an agreement that encompasses the two seems, a priori, difficult.
For the center-right, the PP, Citizens, Vox and Navarre Sum would get 152 deputies, compared to the 149 of the 28th of April. The difference is small, but the new distribution of forces has an important nuance. Until last week, the PSOE could have sought a covenant with Citizens to govern together, with a majority of 180 seats. Now between the two it would be in 153.
Date Of Update: 26 September 2019, 19:02
