The president of Bread for the World says that the hunger crisis in the world is not the result of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine. At the same time, the experts from the evangelical aid organization are making a suggestion as to how Putin's wheat weapon could be defused.
Dagmar Pruin chose drastic words when she presented the Bread for the World annual report at a press conference in Berlin. The president of the evangelical aid organization speaks of a "deadly mix for millions of people". The combination of inflation, the consequences of the corona pandemic, global wars and conflicts, the climate crisis and a failed global agricultural policy ensure that a global hunger crisis is no longer a theoretical scenario. "It's not a threat, as many politicians say, it's a reality."
Added to this is the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine. The war is not just another driver of inflation. "Putin uses wheat as a weapon of war, that's true," says Pruin. But global hunger numbers were already rising before February 24, the day the war began. According to UN figures from last year, up to 828 million people were affected by hunger, which is 150 million more than before the start of the corona pandemic. "This means that one in ten people is chronically malnourished and goes to bed hungry at night," says Pruin. In addition, according to UN estimates, around 345 million people are in an acute emergency situation.
In order to prevent millions of people from starving to death, emergency aid would first have to be increased quickly and massively, explains Pruin. She could also quantify the necessary funds: A total of 22 billion euros would be needed for development aid. A few weeks ago, the G7 pledged to contribute 4.7 billion euros. So just 20 percent of the money needed. And even the full sum would not solve the problems in the long term: "We have to get to the roots of hunger."
With inflation, one of the roots can also be felt in Germany. But especially in the Global South, the rising prices would have life-threatening consequences. Not only are groceries becoming more expensive. But also the rising costs for diesel, electricity and fertilizer make it difficult to transport the harvest. In addition, poor countries cannot simply put together relief packages for the population. "This is how the hunger crisis becomes a debt crisis for the Global South," says Pruin.
Economically, these countries are still feeling the consequences of the corona pandemic. People who kept their jobs despite the lockdowns would have lost them later in cities in the Global South due to the economic downturn. In addition, wars such as in Chad ensured that farmers were driven from their own fields. And even extreme droughts and more floods are anything but optimal conditions for growing grain. "The climate crisis causes the hunger crisis," says Pruin.
The aid organization is therefore calling for a rethinking of agricultural policy in order to free poor countries from their dependencies. Francisco Mari, who is also present, makes it clear that it does not necessarily look like it at the moment. The Bread for the World expert on world nutrition and agricultural trade outlines this using a concrete example. Just recently, the international conference on global food security asked the World Bank for additional funds. However, they would only have wanted to provide money for fertilizer. And that's a problem, because it doesn't help anyone in the long term. Fertilizers are expensive to produce and they dry out the soil when used.
Then there are the industrialized countries, whose agriculture is heavily subsidised. Pruin cites figures from the UN, according to which there will be around 329 billion US dollars annually between 2018 and 2020. "Surpluses flood the markets of poor countries, displacing local producers and leading to the import dependency we are experiencing right now," she says. A project in Burkina Faso shows how sustainable agricultural policy could work. There, the aid organization worked with farmers to plant a more climate-resistant, traditional variety of millet. The plant needs little water and no fertilizer. The result can already be seen in the photos: the ear has visibly more grains.
Because of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine, experts had forecast further worst-case scenarios a few weeks ago, should grain deliveries not be able to leave the country. The Black Sea is mined and Russia has established a naval blockade. This is really a problem for some countries like Tunisia, explains Mari. Because they lacked the storage capacity. Added to this are the exorbitant grain prices, which make it difficult to buy more wheat. "The most immediate consequences are the lack of deliveries," says Mari. About 30 fully loaded ships were stuck in the port of the southern Ukrainian city of Odessa. Because of the grain agreement between Russia and Ukraine, the first freighters have now been able to leave the ports.
But the agreement does not bring any real certainty. The aid organization's experts point out that missing deliveries are not an unsolvable problem. There is enough wheat worldwide to replace exports from Ukraine. An example: The EU, the world's largest wheat producer, produced a total of around 296 million tons of different types of grain last year. However, the Union exports just under 20 percent. Of the remaining 258 million tons, only a fraction actually ends up on the plate: 60 percent is fed to livestock, and 11 percent is used by industry to make biofuel, among other things.
"We already have a lot of wheat anyway," says Mari. "If we stored it, we could use the wheat as a weapon for Putin." The expert explains that there are already associated camps in Germany that have not been used for years. In order to save wheat and reduce Russia's potential for blackmail, he recommends countermeasures: "Fewer schnitzels and less frenzy on the freeway." According to Pruin, there is no quantity crisis with wheat, but there are many others. "We have a distribution crisis, a justice crisis, a debt crisis and an inflation crisis." The result is the hunger crisis.
