The variation in the direction of the vote of a small group of voters can change the sign of the last seat distributed in each province in the elections of 10 November regarding April. In some constituencies the dance of seats could occur with a slight change of opinion, although in others the change of color of the seats in Congress is complicated if it doesn't happen a rollover election remarkable.
In the province Zaragoza , in the elections of the 28 of April only 55 votes decanted the balance in favour of the PSOE in the allocation of the last seat, the seventh of the constituency, to the detriment of Citizens. Nothing served to the party led by Albert Rivera overcome in votes for the PP of the province; both took the same prize, a single seat in the Congress.
The dispute for the last vote of the province of Zaragoza was the most tight, but it was the only constituency that is opted by a few ballots. The PP is left without a seat in Araba , and in the Basque Country, by just 363 votes difference with EH Bildu.
Less than 500 votes decanted the balance in favour of United we Can in Huelva at the expense of Vox, and in favor of Citizens in Palencia, to the detriment of the PSOE. For a little more than 500 votes, the socialists were able to save their second seat in Navarra instead of falling into the hands of EH Bildu. Highly disputed were also the last seats in Balearic islands , Salamanca , Girona , Alicante and Toledo .
The following table shows the distance in number of votes between the party that won the last seat distributed in each constituency the 28-To and the training that stood at the gates to achieve this, following the formula of the electoral law d'hondt. It also includes the percentage involved in these votes of the total electoral census, since that is not the same thing a hundred votes in a province sparsely populated, with few seats to distribute than in a metropolis.
Vox stood at the gates on more occasions that United we Can and Citizens: eight of Abascal, by six Churches and five of Rivera. On the contrary, Citizens picked up the last seat on nine occasions, the same as the PP, both exceeded only by the twenty of the socialists, the winner of the elections.
The PNV is the one who has better tied to their six seats, since none of them is the last spread and, therefore, the variation in the direction of the vote should be higher for what you lost. CKD has only one wire, in Girona, which could fall into the hands of the branch of United we Can in Catalonia, In the city council Can, if they improve their results.
Not a lot of difference of votes is also in contention for the last seat in Las Palmas, Jaén, spain, Vizcaya, Madrid, Murcia, Málaga, Cantabria, Barcelona, Albacete, Cádiz, Badajoz, Córdoba, Castellón and Valencia. Of less than 2% of the electoral roll depends on the change in the color of the last assigned seat in each of these provinces. In Madrid , the last seat was for the PSOE, while the PP is the one who stayed closer to lure him away from.far away
The constituency where you will be a higher shipping percentage of voters between formations are Guipúzcoa, Huesca, Avila, Sevilla, Teruel, Soria, Orense, Ceuta, Segovia, Lugo, Cáceres and Lérida. More than five percent of the electorate would turn to the party that stood at the door; more than ten percent in the case of Cáceres and Lérida. With the exception of Seville, all of which are provinces that are dealt four deputies or less.
The abstention , however, will play a decisive role. In the repeat election of June 2016 fell more than three points with respect to December of the previous year, which was already not particularly high, 73.2%. In the elections of April of this year the participation was higher, the 75,7%. According to the analysis of Narciso Michavila, director of GAD 3, in these moments something more than a million six hundred thousand voters in April expressed their desire not to go back to the polls. "They are mainly voting moderates who voted Citizens or the PSOE and traditional voters that were activated in April for fear of the Vox".Updated Date: 25 September 2019, 06:04