Epidemiologists warn: We hope that the rebound does not originate another wave

Until last Friday, the incidence went downhill and without brakes, but on the 15th, that Friday, he stopped short and even increased a little. The same thing

Epidemiologists warn: We hope that the rebound does not originate another wave

Until last Friday, the incidence went downhill and without brakes, but on the 15th, that Friday, he stopped short and even increased a little. The same thing happened, but on Tuesday he returned again.

However, the most recent data, yesterday afternoon, indicates again an increase of more than one point in the last 24 hours, leaving the incidence accumulated per 100,000 inhabitants in 43.15 cases. Does this mean that you will not stop growing and a sixth wave will start?

Or is it rather about a kind of stagnation of the incidence? Elena Vanessa Martín, President of the Spanish Society of Epidemiology (SEE), and Jonay Ojeda, specialist in preventive medicine and public health and one of the spokesmen of the Spanish Society of Public Health and Health Administration (SESPAS), respond to these questions.

"The truth is that with the relaxation of measures that have been, perhaps excessively fast, what has shown us is really that the vaccine is very effective not only in the prevention of disease but in the transmission," says Martín. "But obviously with risk behaviors in terms of the possibility of transmission of infection, it is logical that there are increases. In principle we hope that these increases do not cause a next wave if we are able to react on time, in addition to the fact that the situation is obviously not the same as we have had before without the vaccine, since we have a very high percentage of vaccination, "the president concludes.

Specifically with 78.2% of the entire Spanish population totally immunized, Ojeda explains: "We have to continue pending and transfer the message to the citizenship that there is still communitarian transmission and it is possible to descend even more this community transmission" . How much more is it possible to lower the incidence?

Is there a minimum that there is no opportunity to overcome? The lowest number of the 14-day accumulated incidence in the history of the pandemic in Spain was 7.74 at the beginning of July 2020.

The experts consulted believe that with effort on the part of citizenship, it could be reached again to that data, always with the help of vaccines: "Obviously reaching a minimum of zero is something that it was a bit strange to think, because in principle it is going Wait as the disease works that the virus continues to circulate with the rest of the viruses, "Arguye Elena Martín.

Even with so few restrictions it would be feasible to reach an incidence less than 10? "Yes, the example is the one we have had in recent months, that is, to flexil these measures as long as we keep surveillance, let us continue to vaccinate and continue using the mask, the cumulative incidence can continue to fall, because it is still work, for Assumption of the health authorities, but also the population that we can download it even more, "reflects Jonay Ojeda.

And could it take the opposite case, that the incidence did not stop climbing and ending causing a sixth wave? "I believe that we are going to have any increase, and that will probably not be the last, but it will not be a wave in itself," he confesses Martín.

But the President of the SEE adds: "Unless it may appear, hopefully no, some variant that can escape the vaccine and immunity, with which it is very necessary to follow a very close surveillance." Thus, she coincides with Ojeda, who speaks on behalf of the sespa.

"I believe that as we understood the epidemic waves, we do not imagine an equal epidemic wave". And clarifies: "I mean, a little the characteristic of the last epidemic wave, the fifth had to do with that there was a population group that was susceptible, that had not been vaccinated mostly and that right now in our country does not happen, since They are all ages at a rather high percentage. "

The specialist in preventive medicine and public health relates: "With which we have a new epidemic wave with the magnitude we had in the fifth, or in the third, or in the second, it will be very complicated, because there are fewer people susceptible . Vaccination protects us in front of that and probably what we would see would be as we are seeing now, a stabilization of the accumulated incidence or even a slight rebound, but another wave is not foreseeable unless we have a mutation in the virus. "

What could be the cause of this species of rebound? "Our colleagues in public health are considering if what we are observing now has to do with the pillar festive bridge and changes in behavior, because we know that in all the history of the epidemic in Spain different risk perceptions have conditioned that it is They produce new epidemic waves, "concludes Ojeda.

Updated Date: 21 October 2021, 02:59

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